Prediction Accuracy & Track Record

High-confidence picks — recent record

Every published pick our model priced at 70% probability or higher (correct score excluded), settled against the final result. Nothing is removed or restated.

	Settled	Hits	Hit rate
Today	12	8	67%
Last 7 days	12	8	67%

Calibration — do our probabilities tell the truth?

Every prediction on this site carries a probability. This table checks that promise on the last 30 days of settled picks: when the model says 80%, the pick should land about 80% of the time. No tipster claim can substitute for this.

Model probability	Settled	Actual hit rate
< 55%	20	45%
55–65%	11	55%
65–75%	4	50%
75–85%	8	63%
85–100%	2	100%

How it works

Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.

Every published pick is settled against the final result and counted here — win rate and ROI per market, by month, with nothing removed. The live table appears as soon as the first predictions settle.