Value picks — model edge vs odds

Value bets are picks where the bookmaker's price pays more than our modelled probability says it should — an edge of at least +5%. The Value column shows that edge: +12% means the offered odds are 12% above our fair odds. Ranked by edge, biggest first.

League	Time	Match	Market	Our pick	Probability	Value
Denmark Division 2	07-31 17:00	FA 2000 vs B93 Copenhagen	Match result (1X2)	Home	42%	+122%
UK Friendlies	08-01 14:00	Harrogate Town vs Scarborough Athletic	Match result (1X2)	Away	38%	+91%
Denmark Division 2	08-01 12:00	Middelfart vs Thisted FC	Match result (1X2)	Away	38%	+89%
Switzerland Challenge League	07-31 18:15	Kriens vs Winterthur	Match result (1X2)	Home	55%	+78%
Poland II Liga	07-31 16:00	Znicz Pruszków vs Legia Warsaw II	Match result (1X2)	Away	48%	+74%
UK Friendlies	07-31 18:45	Leek Town vs Runcorn Linnets	Match result (1X2)	Away	42%	+69%
Wales Premier League	08-01 13:30	Haverfordwest vs Airbus UK	Match result (1X2)	Away	39%	+67%
Poland II Liga	08-01 16:00	Gornik Leczna vs Avia Swidnik	Match result (1X2)	Away	58%	+61%
UK Friendlies	07-31 18:45	Chertsey Town vs Westfield	Match result (1X2)	Away	37%	+57%
UK Friendlies	07-31 18:45	Weston Super Mare vs Gloucester City	Match result (1X2)	Away	42%	+56%
Australia SA Premier League Reserves	08-01 03:15	West Adelaide Reserves vs Para Hills Knights Reserves	Asian handicap 2.25	Home	81%	+55%
Denmark Division 1	07-31 17:00	AB vs FC Fredericia	Match result (1X2)	Home	50%	+55%
UK Friendlies	08-01 14:00	Harrogate Town vs Scarborough Athletic	Asian handicap -1.25	Away	84%	+54%
Wales Premier League	07-31 18:45	Colwyn Bay vs Trefelin BGC	Asian handicap -1.5	Away	80%	+51%
Poland II Liga	08-01 16:00	Gornik Leczna vs Avia Swidnik	Asian handicap -0.25	Away	79%	+48%
Central American and Caribbean Games Women	07-31 20:00	Venezuela (W) vs El Salvador (W)	Asian handicap -1.25	Away	80%	+47%
Finland Kolmonen	08-01 10:00	Toukolan Teras vs PPS	Asian handicap -4.5	Away	75%	+47%
Scotland Highland League	08-01 14:00	Formartine United vs Brora Rangers FC	Match result (1X2)	Home	59%	+47%
Czechia 2. Liga	08-01 16:00	Trinec vs Vysocina Jihlava	Match result (1X2)	Home	56%	+47%
Denmark Division 2	08-01 12:00	Middelfart vs Thisted FC	Asian handicap -1	Away	82%	+47%
New Zealand Southern League	08-01 05:00	Christchurch United vs Cashmere Technical	Asian handicap 2.25	Home	75%	+46%
Denmark Division 2	07-31 17:00	FA 2000 vs B93 Copenhagen	Asian handicap 1	Home	86%	+46%
UK Friendlies	07-31 18:45	Weston Super Mare vs Gloucester City	Asian handicap -0.75	Away	78%	+46%
Czechia 2. Liga	07-31 16:00	SK Kladno vs Banik Ostrava B	Match result (1X2)	Home	55%	+44%
Austria Landesliga	07-31 17:00	SV Donau Klagenfurt vs Austria Klagenfurt	Match result (1X2)	Home	48%	+43%
UK Friendlies	07-31 18:45	Leek Town vs Runcorn Linnets	Asian handicap -0.75	Away	77%	+42%
Sweden Elitettan	07-31 17:30	Linköpings FC (W) vs Orebro SK (W)	Asian handicap -1.5	Away	73%	+42%
Austria 2. Liga	07-31 16:30	FC Wacker Innsbruck vs SW Bregenz	Match result (1X2)	Home	67%	+42%
Switzerland Challenge League	07-31 18:15	Kriens vs Winterthur	Asian handicap 0.5	Home	77%	+41%
Slovakia 2. Liga	07-31 17:00	Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas vs Slovan Galanta	Asian handicap -1.5	Away	71%	+41%
Estonia Meistriliiga Women	08-01 12:00	Paide Linnanaiskond (W) vs Harju JK Laagri (W)	Asian handicap -3.25	Away	78%	+40%
Australia South Australia State League Reserves	08-01 02:45	Adelaide Atletico Reserves vs Salisbury United Reserves	Asian handicap -2.25	Away	76%	+40%
Poland III Liga	07-31 16:00	Gornik Polkowice vs Rakow Czestochowa II	Asian handicap -1.5	Away	77%	+39%
Brazil Campeonato Paulista U20	07-31 18:00	Jabaquara U20 vs Sertaozinho FC U20	Goals 2.5	Under	74%	+39%
Poland III Liga	07-31 16:00	Gedania Gdansk vs Notec Czarnkow	Match result (1X2)	Home	46%	+38%
Lithuania 1 Lyga	07-31 16:00	FC Hegelmann II vs FK Minija	Asian handicap 2.75	Home	77%	+38%
Czechia 2. Liga	08-01 16:00	Trinec vs Vysocina Jihlava	Asian handicap 0.25	Home	81%	+37%
Poland II Liga	08-01 18:00	Lechia Zielona Góra vs Olimpia Grudziadz	Match result (1X2)	Home	50%	+36%
UK Friendlies	07-31 18:45	Chertsey Town vs Westfield	Asian handicap -1	Away	79%	+36%
Poland II Liga	07-31 16:00	Znicz Pruszków vs Legia Warsaw II	Asian handicap -0.25	Away	72%	+36%
New Zealand Central Premier League	08-01 03:00	Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Western Suburbs	Goals 3.25	Under	71%	+36%
Peru Liga 1	08-01 18:00	FC Cajamarca vs Sport Huancayo	Match result (1X2)	Home	44%	+36%
Brazil Serie A1 Women	08-02 00:00	Vitoria (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)	Asian handicap 2	Home	76%	+35%
Czechia 2. Liga	07-31 16:00	SK Kladno vs Banik Ostrava B	Asian handicap 0	Home	74%	+35%
Brazil Campeonato Paulista U20	07-31 18:00	Capivariano U20 vs Porto Foot Ball U20	Goals 3	Under	78%	+34%
Wales Premier League	07-31 18:45	Barry Town vs Cambrian United	Asian handicap -1.25	Away	74%	+33%
Austria 2. Liga	07-31 16:30	FC Wacker Innsbruck vs SW Bregenz	Asian handicap -0.25	Home	75%	+33%
Austria Landesliga	07-31 17:00	SV Donau Klagenfurt vs Austria Klagenfurt	Asian handicap 0.5	Home	73%	+33%
Australia SA Premier League Reserves	08-01 03:15	Campbelltown City Reserves vs Adelaide City Reserves	Asian handicap -3	Away	73%	+33%
Europe Friendlies	07-31 17:00	ADO Den Haag vs Asteras Tripolis	Corners 8.5	Over	68%	+32%
Austria 2. Liga	07-31 16:30	ASK Voitsberg vs SKU Amstetten	Match result (1X2)	Home	63%	+32%
Sweden Damallsvenskan	08-01 14:00	IK Uppsala (W) vs IFK Norrkoping (W)	Asian handicap 0.75	Home	68%	+32%
Europe Friendlies	07-31 16:00	Amiens vs Red Star FC 93	Corners 8.5	Over	66%	+32%
Europe Friendlies	07-31 15:00	Torres vs Alghero	Asian handicap -4	Away	69%	+32%
Mexico Liga de Expansion	08-01 03:00	Club Atletico La Paz vs Alacranes de Durango	Match result (1X2)	Away	44%	+32%
Czechia First League	08-01 18:00	Viktoria Plzen vs FC Brno	Asian handicap -1.25	Away	74%	+32%
UK Friendlies	08-01 14:00	Harrogate Town vs Scarborough Athletic	Goals 3.25	Under	71%	+31%
Hungary NB II	08-01 17:00	Diosgyori VTK vs Szentlorinc SE	Asian handicap -1.25	Away	69%	+30%
Denmark Division 1	07-31 17:00	AB vs FC Fredericia	Asian handicap 0.25	Home	70%	+30%
UK Friendlies	08-01 12:00	Solihull Moors vs Northampton	Asian handicap 1	Home	74%	+30%
Poland III Liga	08-01 16:00	Polonia Lidzbark vs Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	Match result (1X2)	Home	55%	+30%
Europe Friendlies	07-31 15:00	Wolfsburg vs Telstar	Corners 9	Over	74%	+30%
South Africa Premier	08-01 18:00	Kruger United vs Kaizer Chiefs	Asian handicap 0.75	Home	72%	+29%
Austria 2. Liga	07-31 16:30	ASK Voitsberg vs SKU Amstetten	Asian handicap -0.25	Home	71%	+29%
Australia South Australia State League Reserves	08-01 03:15	Fulham United FC Reserves vs Eastern United Reserves	Match result (1X2)	Away	43%	+28%
Poland III Liga	07-31 16:00	Gedania Gdansk vs Notec Czarnkow	Asian handicap 0.25	Home	66%	+28%
Poland III Liga	08-01 10:00	Grom Nowy Staw vs Unia Swarzedz	Match result (1X2)	Home	49%	+28%
Latvia 1. Liga	07-31 16:00	SK Super Nova II vs Riga Mariners	Asian handicap 1.5	Home	71%	+28%
Australia South Australia State League Reserves	08-01 03:15	Fulham United FC Reserves vs Eastern United Reserves	Asian handicap -0.75	Away	70%	+28%
Women’s Friendly	07-31 15:30	Eintracht Frankfurt (W) vs Strasbourg (W)	Corners 8	Over	71%	+27%
Republic of Ireland First Division	07-31 18:45	Finn Harps vs Cork City	Asian handicap 1.5	Home	65%	+27%
Copa do Brasil	08-01 22:30	Atletico Mineiro vs Juventude	Asian handicap -1	Away	67%	+27%
Austria Bundesliga	08-01 17:30	FC Salzburg vs Hartberg	Asian handicap -1.5	Away	66%	+27%
India Calcutta Football League	08-01 09:30	George Telegraph FC vs Bhawanipore FC	Asian handicap 2	Home	68%	+27%
New Zealand Northern League	08-01 05:30	Western Springs AFC vs Birkenhead United	Asian handicap 1.75	Home	65%	+27%
Brazil Campeonato Paulista U20	07-31 22:00	Velo Clube U20 vs SC Paulinense U20	Goals 2.5	Under	63%	+27%
Poland II Liga	08-01 18:00	Lechia Zielona Góra vs Olimpia Grudziadz	Asian handicap 0.25	Home	74%	+27%
Africa Cup of Nations Women	07-31 17:00	South Africa (W) vs Ivory Coast (W)	Corners 8	Under	72%	+26%
Europe Friendlies	07-31 17:00	NEC vs Sevilla	Corners 8.5	Over	63%	+26%
Australia South Australia State League Reserves	08-01 07:15	Adelaide Cobras Reserves vs Adelaide Olympic Reserves	Asian handicap 1	Home	72%	+26%
Czechia 2. Liga	07-31 17:00	FC Silon Taborsko vs Dukla Praha	Match result (1X2)	Home	44%	+26%
Norway Eliteserien	07-31 19:00	Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom	Asian handicap -1.75	Away	64%	+26%
Poland III Liga	08-01 16:00	Pelikan Lowicz vs LKS Lomza	Asian handicap 1.5	Home	66%	+26%
Scotland Championship	08-01 14:00	Raith vs Stenhousemuir	Asian handicap -0.75	Away	65%	+26%
Poland III Liga	08-01 10:00	Grom Nowy Staw vs Unia Swarzedz	Asian handicap 0.25	Home	72%	+26%
Wales Premier League	07-31 18:45	Briton Ferry vs Ammanford AFC	Asian handicap -0.75	Away	66%	+25%
UK Friendlies	07-31 18:45	Salisbury vs Havant and W	Asian handicap -0.75	Away	65%	+25%
Australia South Australia State League 1	08-01 05:30	South Adelaide Panthers vs Modbury Jets	Asian handicap 1.75	Home	64%	+25%
Czechia First League	08-01 18:00	Viktoria Plzen vs FC Brno	Corners 10	Under	63%	+25%
Finland Kolmonen	08-01 10:00	Sibbov vs ToTe/Tapio	Asian handicap -2.75	Away	66%	+25%
Czechia 2. Liga	07-31 17:00	FC Silon Taborsko vs Dukla Praha	Asian handicap 0.25	Home	70%	+25%
Mexico Liga MX	08-01 01:00	Puebla vs Chivas Guadalajara	Asian handicap 0.75	Home	65%	+25%
South Korea K League 1	08-01 10:30	Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995	Asian handicap -1	Away	70%	+24%
Serbia Super Liga	08-01 16:00	FK Radnik Surdulica vs Crvena Zvezda	Asian handicap 1.5	Home	62%	+24%
UK Friendlies	08-01 14:00	Farnham Town vs Eastleigh	Asian handicap 0.75	Home	67%	+24%
New Zealand Northern League	08-01 03:00	Tauranga City AFC vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland	Asian handicap 1.75	Home	68%	+24%
Panama Liga Prom	08-01 01:00	SD Atletico Nacional vs Union Cocle Reserves	Asian handicap -1.25	Away	68%	+24%
Finland Kolmonen	08-01 09:00	Gnistan/Ogeli vs TiPS U21	Asian handicap -1.25	Away	68%	+24%
Austria 2. Liga	07-31 16:30	Admira Wacker vs Rapid Vienna II	Match result (1X2)	Home	50%	+24%
Romania Liga I	08-01 15:30	FC Voluntari vs UTA Arad	Match result (1X2)	Home	47%	+24%