MathPredictions
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Ecuador LigaPro Serie B

22 de Julio vs El Nacional Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 1-0
Expected goals1.58 – 0.80
Avg goals2.38
Our pickHome
22 de Julio 55% Draw 28% El Nacional 18%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Home 55% 1.83 1.95
Double chance – Home or draw 82% 1.22 1.23
Goals 2.25 Under 51% 1.97 2.00
Both teams to score – No 55% 1.81 –
Asian handicap -0.5 Home 55% 1.83 1.80
Corners 9 Over +12% Value 63% 1.58 1.80
Correct score – 1-0 +48% Value 13% 7.42 9.50

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 1.95  ·  Draw 3.30  ·  Away 3.40
Goals 2.25 Over 1.80  ·  Under 2.00
Asian handicap -0.5 Home 1.80  ·  Away 2.00
Corners 9 Over 1.80  ·  Under 2.00

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Corner forecast

6.1 22 de Julio
10.1 Expected corners
4.1 El Nacional

22 de Julio corner stats · El Nacional corner stats

Corner line 9.00
Over 63% Under 37%

Match trends

  • Our model projects 10.1 corners in this match, with 22 de Julio winning 6.1 of them.
  • Across 13 recent matches, 22 de Julio games produced 8.85 corners on average — 4.38 taken by 22 de Julio themselves.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 38% of 22 de Julio matches.
  • El Nacional matches average 9.76 total corners (4.24 won per game) across their last 37 with corner data.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 51% of El Nacional matches.
  • Games involving 22 de Julio produce 2.08 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 31%.
  • El Nacional matches average 2.76 goals, with both teams scoring in 46% of them.
  • On the goal line, our probabilities favour Under 2.25 (51%).

22 de Julio — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-26 A L Club 9 de Octubre 0–1 2–9
2026-05-10 A D El Nacional 1–1 5–9
2026-04-30 H D Gualaceo SC 0–0 12–3
2026-04-26 A L Vinotinto Ecuador 0–2 3–7
2026-04-09 A L Atletico FC Guayaquil 0–1 4–3
2026-03-27 A L San Antonio FC Cotacachi 2–5 12–4
2025-09-28 A D Imbabura 1–1 0–4
2025-09-17 A L Cumbaya FC 0–2 2–5
2025-09-11 H D Chacaritas SC 1–1 3–0
2025-09-04 A L CD Vargas Torres 0–4 5–4

El Nacional — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-25 H D Gualaceo SC 0–0 3–6
2026-07-16 A L Vinotinto Ecuador 1–2 3–7
2026-07-09 H L Cumbaya 0–1 3–4
2026-07-03 A L Atletico FC Guayaquil 0–3 6–9
2026-06-11 H D CD Santo Domingo 0–0 5–9
2026-06-08 A L CD Cuenca Jrs 1–4 6–4
2026-06-01 H L LDU Portoviejo 0–1 6–5
2026-05-29 H L Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1–4 5–3
2026-05-25 A L San Antonio FC Cotacachi 0–1 2–3
2026-05-18 A L Club 9 de Octubre 1–3 3–10

Match questions

Who is predicted to win 22 de Julio vs El Nacional?
Our model gives 22 de Julio a 55% chance, the draw 28% and El Nacional 18%. The most likely score is 1-0.
How many corners are expected in 22 de Julio vs El Nacional?
The corner model projects 10.1 total corners. Over 9.00 corners is rated at 63% probability.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.