Colombia Primera A
Alianza vs Deportes Tolima Prediction
Kickoff (UTC):
Predicted score
1-1
Expected goals1.07 – 1.08
Avg goals2.15
Our pickAway
Alianza 34%
Draw 32%
Deportes Tolima 34%
Markets
| Market | Line | Our pick | Probability | Fair odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | – | Away | 34% | 2.93 | 2.80 |
| Double chance | – | Home or away | 68% | 1.48 | 1.35 |
| Goals | 2.25 | Under | 58% | 1.73 | 1.83 |
| Both teams to score | – | No | 55% | 1.81 | 1.83 |
| Asian handicap | 0 | Away | 50% | 1.98 | 1.98 |
| Corners | 9 | Under | 52% | 1.92 | 1.83 |
| Correct score | – | 1-1 | 15% | 6.75 | 6.00 |
Bookmaker odds
| Match result (1X2) | Home 2.60 · Draw 3.10 · Away 2.80 |
| Goals 2.25 | Over 1.98 · Under 1.83 |
| Asian handicap 0 | Home 1.83 · Away 1.98 |
| Corners 9 | Over 1.98 · Under 1.83 |
Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.
Corner forecast
4.9
Alianza
8.8
Expected corners
3.9
Deportes Tolima
Alianza corner stats · Deportes Tolima corner stats
Corner line 9.00
Over 48%
Under 52%
Match trends
- The corner model expects around 8.8 corners here; Alianza are forecast for 4.9.
- Across 42 recent matches, Alianza games produced 9.00 corners on average — 4.60 taken by Alianza themselves.
- Alianza games clear the 9.5 corner line 48% of the time.
- Deportes Tolima matches average 8.67 total corners (4.48 won per game) across their last 61 with corner data.
- Deportes Tolima games clear the 9.5 corner line 34% of the time.
- Alianza matches average 2.29 goals, with both teams scoring in 43% of them.
- Games involving Deportes Tolima produce 2.08 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 36%.
- The last 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.2 goals per game.
- Corners have averaged 7.6 across their last 5 direct meetings.
- The model leans Under 2.25 goals at 58% probability.
Alianza — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | H | D Fortaleza CEIF | 1–1 | 5–3 |
| 2026-05-25 | H | W Atletico Bucaramanga | 2–1 | 8–5 |
| 2026-05-21 | A | L Deportivo Cali | 0–1 | 4–8 |
| 2026-05-17 | H | W CD Real Santander | 3–0 | 6–1 |
| 2026-05-09 | A | D Boca Juniors De Cali | 1–1 | 3–2 |
| 2026-05-04 | H | D Millonarios | 2–2 | 3–8 |
| 2026-04-27 | A | D Llaneros | 0–0 | 2–7 |
| 2026-04-20 | H | L Independiente Medellin | 0–1 | 6–4 |
| 2026-04-13 | A | L Internacional de Bogota | 1–2 | 6–4 |
| 2026-04-07 | A | W Deportivo Pereira | 3–2 | 5–5 |
Deportes Tolima — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | A | L Deportes Quindio | 1–2 | 0–5 |
| 2026-07-26 | H | W Junior | 2–1 | 1–7 |
| 2026-07-22 | H | W Deportes Quindio | 2–1 | 9–3 |
| 2026-05-27 | A | D Universitario de Deportes | 0–0 | 3–9 |
| 2026-05-24 | A | L Atletico Nacional | 1–3 | 4–7 |
| 2026-05-20 | A | L Coquimbo Unido | 0–2 | 4–1 |
| 2026-05-17 | H | L Atletico Nacional | 0–1 | 8–2 |
| 2026-05-14 | A | W Deportivo Pasto | 2–0 | 2–9 |
| 2026-05-10 | H | W Deportivo Pasto | 1–0 | 6–6 |
| 2026-05-07 | H | W Nacional De Football | 3–0 | 10–3 |
Match questions
- Who is predicted to win Alianza vs Deportes Tolima?
- Our model gives Alianza a 34% chance, the draw 32% and Deportes Tolima 34%. The most likely score is 1-1.
- How many corners are expected in Alianza vs Deportes Tolima?
- The corner model projects 8.8 total corners. Over 9.00 corners is rated at 48% probability.
- How are these predictions calculated?
- Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.