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Mexico Liga de Expansion

Atletico Morelia vs Cancun FC Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

LIVE 25′ 0–1

Corners3–1
Yellow cards0–0
Shots on target4–2
Shots off target3–0
Attacks31–24
Dangerous attacks20–9
Possession55%–45%
Predicted score 1-113%1-012%0-010%
Expected goals1.42 – 0.99
Avg goals2.41
Our pickHome
Atletico Morelia 46% Draw 28% Cancun FC 26%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Home 46% 2.16 1.91
Double chance – Home or draw 74% 1.35 1.24
Goals 2.25 Under 50% 1.99 1.80
Both teams to score – No 52% 1.93 –
Asian handicap -0.5 Away 54% 1.86 1.90
Corners 9.5 Over 55% 1.81 2.00
Correct score – 1-1 13% 7.61 7.00

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 1.91  ·  Draw 3.50  ·  Away 4.00
Goals 2.5 Over 2.00  ·  Under 1.80
Asian handicap -0.5 Home 1.90  ·  Away 1.90
Corners 10 Over 2.00  ·  Under 1.80

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Corner forecast

6.3 Atletico Morelia
10.0 Expected corners
3.6 Cancun FC

Atletico Morelia corner stats · Cancun FC corner stats

Corner line 9.50
Over 55% Under 45%

Match trends

  • Our model projects 10 corners in this match, with Atletico Morelia winning 6.3 of them.
  • Atletico Morelia win 5.03 corners per game, with match totals averaging 9.47 over their last 36.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 47% of Atletico Morelia matches.
  • Across 36 recent matches, Cancun FC games produced 10.58 corners on average — 4.36 taken by Cancun FC themselves.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 58% of Cancun FC matches.
  • Games involving Atletico Morelia produce 2.61 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 42%.
  • Cancun FC matches average 2.56 goals, with both teams scoring in 56% of them.
  • Across their previous 10 meetings, these sides averaged 2.3 goals.
  • Head-to-head, the last 10 meetings with corner data averaged 11.9 corners.
  • On the goal line, our probabilities favour Under 2.25 (50%).

Atletico Morelia — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-08-02 A L Piratas 0–1 3–10
2026-07-26 H W Club Atletico La Paz 4–2 0–0
2026-07-05 H D Cruz Azul 3–3 5–3
2026-04-26 H W Mineros de Zacatecas 2–0 12–3
2026-04-23 A L Mineros de Zacatecas 0–3 3–1
2026-04-20 A L Jaiba Brava 0–1 4–12
2026-04-12 H D Tlaxcala FC 0–0 6–4
2026-04-05 A L Universidad Guadalajara 0–2 6–5
2026-03-29 H W Irapuato 2–0 6–5
2026-03-23 A L Tapatio 1–2 7–1

Cancun FC — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-08-02 H L Universidad Guadalajara 0–2 0–1
2026-07-05 H L Unam Pumas 0–3 2–4
2026-07-04 H W Toluca 1–0 2–5
2026-05-04 H D Jaiba Brava 1–1 13–3
2026-05-01 A L Jaiba Brava 1–2 0–5
2026-04-27 H W Tapatio 1–0 3–11
2026-04-24 A D Tapatio 1–1 2–7
2026-04-20 A W Universidad Guadalajara 2–1 2–7
2026-04-12 H W Atlante 2–1 2–6
2026-04-04 A W Correcaminos 3–1 0–5

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Atletico Morelia vs Cancun FC?
Our model gives Atletico Morelia a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Cancun FC 26%. The most likely score is 1-1.
How many corners are expected in Atletico Morelia vs Cancun FC?
The corner model projects 10.0 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 55% probability.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.