Scotland Championship
Ayr vs Arbroath Prediction
Kickoff (UTC):
Predicted score
1-1
Expected goals1.30 – 0.98
Avg goals2.29
Our pickHome
Ayr 43%
Draw 31%
Arbroath 27%
Markets
| Market | Line | Our pick | Probability | Fair odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | – | Home | 43% | 2.35 | 2.40 |
| Double chance | – | Home or draw | 73% | 1.37 | 1.33 |
| Goals | 2 | Over | 56% | 1.80 | 1.75 |
| Both teams to score | – | No | 53% | 1.88 | 1.73 |
| Asian handicap | 0 | Home +6% Value | 61% | 1.63 | 2.05 |
| Corners | 9.5 | Under +9% Value | 54% | 1.86 | 2.03 |
| Correct score | – | 1-1 | 14% | 6.98 | 6.00 |
Bookmaker odds
| Match result (1X2) | Home 2.40 · Draw 3.00 · Away 2.70 |
| Goals 2 | Over 1.75 · Under 2.05 |
| Asian handicap -0.25 | Home 2.05 · Away 1.75 |
| Corners 9.5 | Over 1.78 · Under 2.03 |
Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.
Corner forecast
4.8
Ayr
9.2
Expected corners
4.3
Arbroath
Ayr corner stats · Arbroath corner stats
Corner line 9.50
Over 46%
Under 54%
Match trends
- The corner model expects around 9.2 corners here; Ayr are forecast for 4.8.
- Ayr win 4.94 corners per game, with match totals averaging 9.57 over their last 49.
- Ayr games clear the 9.5 corner line 47% of the time.
- Across 48 recent matches, Arbroath games produced 9.33 corners on average — 5.13 taken by Arbroath themselves.
- Arbroath games clear the 9.5 corner line 46% of the time.
- Ayr matches average 2.61 goals, with both teams scoring in 59% of them.
- Games involving Arbroath produce 2.46 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 50%.
- The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals per game.
- Corners have averaged 8.9 across their last 10 direct meetings.
- The model leans Over 2.00 goals at 56% probability.
Ayr — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | H | W Alloa | 4–1 | 5–5 |
| 2026-07-18 | H | W Edinburgh City | 2–0 | 2–5 |
| 2026-07-15 | A | W Falkirk | 1–0 | 6–5 |
| 2026-07-11 | A | W Stranraer | 3–2 | 2–0 |
| 2026-07-04 | H | W Airdrieonians | 2–1 | 6–3 |
| 2026-07-01 | H | W Dumbarton | 3–0 | 5–6 |
| 2026-05-02 | H | L St Johnstone | 0–1 | 7–9 |
| 2026-04-25 | A | L Airdrieonians | 1–2 | 6–6 |
| 2026-04-18 | A | L Ross County | 1–2 | 5–4 |
| 2026-04-11 | H | W Arbroath | 1–0 | 7–3 |
Arbroath — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | H | W Stirling | 1–0 | 3–2 |
| 2026-07-22 | H | L Montrose | 0–2 | 7–4 |
| 2026-07-19 | A | L Dundee Utd | 0–3 | 6–6 |
| 2026-07-11 | A | W Spartans FC | 2–1 | 8–4 |
| 2026-06-27 | H | L St Mirren | 2–4 | 2–8 |
| 2026-05-09 | H | D Dunfermline | 0–0 | 6–6 |
| 2026-05-06 | A | L Dunfermline | 0–1 | 0–6 |
| 2026-05-02 | A | D Dunfermline | 0–0 | 11–5 |
| 2026-04-25 | H | D Partick | 0–0 | 5–3 |
| 2026-04-18 | H | W Raith | 2–1 | 4–2 |
Match questions
- Who is predicted to win Ayr vs Arbroath?
- Our model gives Ayr a 43% chance, the draw 31% and Arbroath 27%. The most likely score is 1-1.
- How many corners are expected in Ayr vs Arbroath?
- The corner model projects 9.2 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 46% probability.
- How are these predictions calculated?
- Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.