Bulgaria First League
Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna Prediction
Kickoff (UTC):
Predicted score
1-1
Expected goals1.46 – 0.99
Avg goals2.44
Our pickHome
Botev Plovdiv 47%
Draw 29%
Cherno More Varna 24%
Markets
| Market | Line | Our pick | Probability | Fair odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | – | Home | 47% | 2.14 | 1.80 |
| Double chance | – | Home or draw | 76% | 1.32 | 1.20 |
| Goals | 2.5 | Under | 56% | 1.79 | 1.83 |
| Both teams to score | – | No | 51% | 1.97 | 1.83 |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | Away +6% Value | 53% | 1.88 | 2.00 |
| Corners | 9.5 | Under | 54% | 1.87 | – |
| Correct score | – | 1-1 | 14% | 7.29 | 7.00 |
Bookmaker odds
| Match result (1X2) | Home 1.80 · Draw 3.60 · Away 4.33 |
| Goals 2.5 | Over 1.98 · Under 1.83 |
| Asian handicap -0.5 | Home 1.80 · Away 2.00 |
Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.
Corner forecast
5.1
Botev Plovdiv
9.2
Expected corners
4.1
Cherno More Varna
Botev Plovdiv corner stats · Cherno More Varna corner stats
Corner line 9.50
Over 46%
Under 54%
Match trends
- The corner model expects around 9.2 corners here; Botev Plovdiv are forecast for 5.1.
- Botev Plovdiv matches average 9.61 total corners (5.05 won per game) across their last 44 with corner data.
- Botev Plovdiv games clear the 9.5 corner line 43% of the time.
- Cherno More Varna win 5.07 corners per game, with match totals averaging 8.98 over their last 41.
- Cherno More Varna games clear the 9.5 corner line 34% of the time.
- Botev Plovdiv matches average 2.57 goals, with both teams scoring in 48% of them.
- Games involving Cherno More Varna produce 2.12 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 34%.
- The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.7 goals per game.
- Corners have averaged 8.4 across their last 10 direct meetings.
- The model leans Under 2.50 goals at 56% probability.
Botev Plovdiv — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | A | L CSKA Sofia | 2–3 | 5–17 |
| 2026-07-21 | H | D Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 1–1 | 6–1 |
| 2026-07-05 | H | W Spartak Varna | 1–0 | 1–3 |
| 2026-06-28 | H | W KF Ballkani | 2–0 | 2–1 |
| 2026-06-26 | H | W Arda Kardzhali | 2–1 | 3–3 |
| 2026-05-25 | A | L Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1–2 | 6–3 |
| 2026-05-17 | H | W Cherno More Varna | 5–0 | 4–3 |
| 2026-05-13 | H | L Arda Kardzhali | 1–2 | 6–1 |
| 2026-05-09 | A | L Cherno More Varna | 0–2 | 3–4 |
| 2026-05-03 | H | L Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0–2 | 4–1 |
Cherno More Varna — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | H | L Spartak Varna | 0–3 | 9–1 |
| 2026-07-20 | A | D Botev Vratsa | 1–1 | 4–5 |
| 2026-07-12 | H | D Dunav Ruse | 1–1 | 11–3 |
| 2026-05-25 | H | L Arda Kardzhali | 2–3 | 3–3 |
| 2026-05-17 | A | L Botev Plovdiv | 0–5 | 3–4 |
| 2026-05-12 | H | W Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 2–0 | 2–5 |
| 2026-05-09 | H | W Botev Plovdiv | 2–0 | 4–3 |
| 2026-05-03 | A | D Arda Kardzhali | 0–0 | 1–8 |
| 2026-04-26 | A | W Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1–0 | 5–1 |
| 2026-04-15 | H | L CSKA 1948 Sofia | 0–4 | 2–4 |
Match questions
- Who is predicted to win Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?
- Our model gives Botev Plovdiv a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Cherno More Varna 24%. The most likely score is 1-1.
- How many corners are expected in Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?
- The corner model projects 9.2 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 46% probability.
- How are these predictions calculated?
- Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.