MathPredictions
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UK Friendlies

Burton Albion vs Derby Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 1-1
Expected goals1.08 – 1.64
Avg goals2.72
Our pickAway
Burton Albion 24% Draw 27% Derby 49%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Away 49% 2.03 1.62
Double chance – Draw or away 76% 1.31 1.13
Goals 2.5 Over 51% 1.95 1.98
Both teams to score – Yes 54% 1.84 –
Corners 9.5 Under 68% 1.47 –
Correct score – 1-1 13% 7.80 7.50

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 4.40  ·  Draw 3.75  ·  Away 1.62
Goals 2.75 Over 1.98  ·  Under 1.83

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Corner forecast

3.9 Burton Albion
8.0 Expected corners
4.0 Derby

Burton Albion corner stats · Derby corner stats

Corner line 9.50
Over 32% Under 68%

Match trends

  • Our model projects 8 corners in this match, with Burton Albion winning 3.9 of them.
  • Burton Albion matches average 9.69 total corners (4.85 won per game) across their last 59 with corner data.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 46% of Burton Albion matches.
  • Derby win 4.43 corners per game, with match totals averaging 9.82 over their last 51.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 47% of Derby matches.
  • Games involving Burton Albion produce 2.39 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 44%.
  • Derby matches average 2.73 goals, with both teams scoring in 65% of them.
  • Across their previous 10 meetings, these sides averaged 2.7 goals.
  • Head-to-head, the last 10 meetings with corner data averaged 9.5 corners.
  • On the goal line, our probabilities favour Over 2.50 (51%).

Burton Albion — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-29 A D Solihull Moors 1–1 5–4
2026-07-23 H L Birmingham 0–1 2–2
2026-07-18 H L Leicester 0–3 1–9
2026-07-11 A D Alfreton Town 0–0 2–2
2026-05-02 A D Leyton Orient 2–2 1–5
2026-04-25 H D Exeter 1–1 3–1
2026-04-19 A D Peterborough 1–1 4–4
2026-04-11 H W AFC Wimbledon 1–0 9–2
2026-04-06 A D Mansfield 0–0 3–3
2026-04-03 H D Barnsley 1–1 9–0

Derby — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-18 A W Alfreton Town 2–0 5–3
2026-05-02 H L Sheff Utd 1–2 6–4
2026-04-25 A W QPR 3–2 6–10
2026-04-22 A L Norwich 1–2 4–3
2026-04-18 H W Oxford Utd 1–0 7–3
2026-04-11 A L Southampton 1–2 2–6
2026-04-06 H W Stoke 2–0 5–3
2026-04-04 A L Coventry 2–3 1–6
2026-03-21 H W Birmingham 1–0 6–2
2026-03-17 A W Portsmouth 1–0 3–11

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Burton Albion vs Derby?
Our model gives Burton Albion a 24% chance, the draw 27% and Derby 49%. The most likely score is 1-1.
How many corners are expected in Burton Albion vs Derby?
The corner model projects 8.0 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 32% probability.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.