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Wales Championship South

Carmarthen vs Caerau Ely Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 1-1
Expected goals1.41 – 1.67
Avg goals3.08
Our pickAway
Carmarthen 31% Draw 26% Caerau Ely 43%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Away 43% 2.34 2.00
Double chance – Home or away 74% 1.35 1.20
Goals 2.5 Over 59% 1.68 1.83
Both teams to score – Yes 62% 1.60 –
Corners 9.5 Over 60% 1.67 –
Correct score – 1-1 12% 8.39 7.50

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 3.00  ·  Draw 3.60  ·  Away 2.00
Goals 2.75 Over 1.83  ·  Under 1.98

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Corner forecast

4.8 Carmarthen
10.4 Expected corners
5.6 Caerau Ely

Carmarthen corner stats · Caerau Ely corner stats

Corner line 9.50
Over 60% Under 40%

Match trends

  • The corner model expects around 10.4 corners here; Carmarthen are forecast for 4.8.
  • Carmarthen matches average 10.18 total corners (5.03 won per game) across their last 34 with corner data.
  • Carmarthen games clear the 9.5 corner line 50% of the time.
  • Caerau Ely win 5.91 corners per game, with match totals averaging 10.09 over their last 32.
  • Caerau Ely games clear the 9.5 corner line 53% of the time.
  • Carmarthen matches average 3.06 goals, with both teams scoring in 56% of them.
  • Games involving Caerau Ely produce 3.19 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 53%.
  • The last 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.2 goals per game.
  • Corners have averaged 11.6 across their last 5 direct meetings.
  • The model leans Over 2.50 goals at 59% probability.

Carmarthen — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-15 H L Briton Ferry 2–3 5–4
2026-07-08 H L Cardiff Met Uni 1–3 1–6
2026-07-04 H W Trefelin BGC 4–2 6–3
2026-04-18 A L Treowen Stars 1–4 8–4
2026-04-04 H L Pontypridd Utd 0–1 6–2
2026-03-28 A W Baglan Dragons 7–0 8–3
2026-03-21 H D Ynyshir Albions 0–0 12–8
2026-03-14 A W Cardiff Draconians 3–2 5–8
2026-03-07 A W Trethomas Bluebirds 5–4 6–2
2026-03-01 A D Newport City 4–4 2–6

Caerau Ely — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-01 H D Cardiff Corinthians AFC 0–0 8–4
2026-04-18 A D Pontypridd Utd 0–0 6–5
2026-04-04 H W Ynyshir Albions 2–0 6–6
2026-03-28 A W Llantwit Major 4–1 6–6
2026-03-21 H D Cwmbran Celtic 0–0 13–3
2026-03-14 A W Baglan Dragons 5–0 2–2
2026-03-11 H W Treowen Stars 3–0 4–1
2026-03-07 H W Afan Lido 4–1 12–3
2026-03-01 A W Aberystwyth 4–0 9–8
2026-02-21 H L Carmarthen 3–4 7–8

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Carmarthen vs Caerau Ely?
Our model gives Carmarthen a 31% chance, the draw 26% and Caerau Ely 43%. The most likely score is 1-1.
How many corners are expected in Carmarthen vs Caerau Ely?
The corner model projects 10.4 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 60% probability.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.