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Brazil Paulista Cup

Comercial SP vs Uniao Sao Joao Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 1-0
Expected goals1.27 – 0.78
Avg goals2.05
Our pickHome
Comercial SP 47% Draw 32% Uniao Sao Joao 22%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Home 47% 2.15 2.25
Double chance – Home or draw 78% 1.28 1.32
Goals 2 Under +6% Value 53% 1.88 2.05
Both teams to score – No 60% 1.67 –
Asian handicap -0.25 Home +9% Value 55% 1.81 2.00
Corners 9 Over +7% Value 59% 1.70 1.83
Correct score – 1-0 +13% Value 15% 6.63 7.50

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 2.25  ·  Draw 3.20  ·  Away 2.80
Goals 2 Over 1.75  ·  Under 2.05
Asian handicap -0.25 Home 2.00  ·  Away 1.80
Corners 9 Over 1.83  ·  Under 1.98

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Corner forecast

5.0 Comercial SP
9.7 Expected corners
4.7 Uniao Sao Joao

Comercial SP corner stats · Uniao Sao Joao corner stats

Corner line 9.00
Over 59% Under 41%

Match trends

  • Our model projects 9.7 corners in this match, with Comercial SP winning 5 of them.
  • Comercial SP matches average 8.83 total corners (3.78 won per game) across their last 23 with corner data.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 39% of Comercial SP matches.
  • Uniao Sao Joao win 4.13 corners per game, with match totals averaging 9.83 over their last 24.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 54% of Uniao Sao Joao matches.
  • Games involving Comercial SP produce 2.09 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 48%.
  • Uniao Sao Joao matches average 2.13 goals, with both teams scoring in 38% of them.
  • Across their previous 3 meetings, these sides averaged 2 goals.
  • Head-to-head, the last 3 meetings with corner data averaged 11.7 corners.
  • On the goal line, our probabilities favour Under 2.00 (53%).

Comercial SP — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-26 A W XV Piracicaba 2–0 1–12
2026-07-19 H W Noroeste 2–0 2–4
2026-04-05 H W Tanabi 2–1 5–3
2026-03-29 A L Jabaquara 1–2 7–2
2026-03-26 H W Inter de Bebedouro 1–0 4–4
2026-03-22 A W Jacarei FC 2–1 4–5
2026-03-19 H W Vocem 3–1 2–9
2026-03-15 A D Aracatuba 0–0 4–3
2026-03-08 H W Nacional SP 2–0 4–2
2026-03-05 A L Sao Caetano 1–2 1–2

Uniao Sao Joao — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-26 A D Noroeste 2–2 6–2
2026-07-23 H D XV Piracicaba 0–0 1–4
2026-07-04 A L Santos 0–3 4–10
2026-03-22 H D EC Sao Bernardo 2–2 2–10
2026-03-15 A L Paulista 0–3 7–5
2026-03-12 H W Francana 2–1 1–5
2026-03-08 A W Catanduva 2–0 6–6
2026-03-05 H W Portuguesa Santista 1–0 8–2
2026-03-01 A D Itapirense 1–1 3–5
2026-02-26 A D Desportivo Brasil 0–0 5–6

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Comercial SP vs Uniao Sao Joao?
Our model gives Comercial SP a 47% chance, the draw 32% and Uniao Sao Joao 22%. The most likely score is 1-0.
How many corners are expected in Comercial SP vs Uniao Sao Joao?
The corner model projects 9.7 total corners. Over 9.00 corners is rated at 59% probability.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.