MathPredictions

Mexico Liga de Expansion

Correcaminos vs Tepatitlan de Morelos Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 1-1
Expected goals1.19 – 1.35
Avg goals2.54
Our pickAway
Correcaminos 32% Draw 29% Tepatitlan de Morelos 39%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) Away +17% Value 39% 2.56 2.90
Double chance Home or away 71% 1.41 1.30
Goals 2.25 Over 54% 1.86 1.88
Both teams to score Yes 53% 1.89
Asian handicap -0.25 Away +10% Value 63% 1.59 1.78
Corners 9.5 Under 51% 1.96 1.88
Correct score 1-1 14% 7.17 6.50

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 2.35  ·  Draw 3.30  ·  Away 2.90
Goals 2.25 Over 1.88  ·  Under 1.93
Asian handicap -0.25 Home 2.03  ·  Away 1.78
Corners 9.5 Over 1.93  ·  Under 1.88

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Corner forecast

4.2 Correcaminos
9.4 Expected corners
5.2 Tepatitlan de Morelos
Corner line 9.50
Over 49% Under 51%

Match trends

Correcaminos — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-25 A D Mineros de Zacatecas 3–3 6–2
2026-07-04 H D Chivas Guadalajara 0–0 3–7
2026-04-18 H L Oaxaca 1–3 4–5
2026-04-13 A L Mineros de Zacatecas 1–3 1–5
2026-04-04 H L Cancun FC 1–3 5–0
2026-03-29 A L Dorados 1–2 5–2
2026-03-19 A L Jaiba Brava 1–3 2–9
2026-03-14 H W Irapuato 2–1 5–1
2026-03-07 A W Venados FC 1–0 3–5
2026-02-28 H D Tapatio 2–2 6–5

Tepatitlan de Morelos — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-25 H L Alacranes de Durango 0–1 4–7
2026-05-31 A L Jaiba Brava 0–2 6–3
2026-05-24 H W Jaiba Brava 3–1 8–1
2026-05-17 H W Jaiba Brava 1–0 3–7
2026-05-10 A D Jaiba Brava 0–0 7–4
2026-05-04 H D Mineros de Zacatecas 1–1 4–1
2026-05-01 A D Mineros de Zacatecas 1–1 5–6
2026-04-27 H W Atlante 2–0 7–1
2026-04-24 A L Atlante 0–2 3–5
2026-04-11 A D Club Atletico La Paz 1–1 9–7

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Correcaminos vs Tepatitlan de Morelos?
Our model gives Correcaminos a 32% chance, the draw 29% and Tepatitlan de Morelos 39%. The most likely score is 1-1.
How many corners are expected in Correcaminos vs Tepatitlan de Morelos?
The corner model projects 9.4 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 49% probability.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.