Mexico Liga de Expansion
Correcaminos vs Tepatitlan de Morelos Prediction
Kickoff (UTC):
Predicted score
1-1
Expected goals1.19 – 1.35
Avg goals2.54
Our pickAway
Correcaminos 32%
Draw 29%
Tepatitlan de Morelos 39%
Markets
| Market | Line | Our pick | Probability | Fair odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | – | Away +17% Value | 39% | 2.56 | 2.90 |
| Double chance | – | Home or away | 71% | 1.41 | 1.30 |
| Goals | 2.25 | Over | 54% | 1.86 | 1.88 |
| Both teams to score | – | Yes | 53% | 1.89 | – |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | Away +10% Value | 63% | 1.59 | 1.78 |
| Corners | 9.5 | Under | 51% | 1.96 | 1.88 |
| Correct score | – | 1-1 | 14% | 7.17 | 6.50 |
Bookmaker odds
| Match result (1X2) | Home 2.35 · Draw 3.30 · Away 2.90 |
| Goals 2.25 | Over 1.88 · Under 1.93 |
| Asian handicap -0.25 | Home 2.03 · Away 1.78 |
| Corners 9.5 | Over 1.93 · Under 1.88 |
Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.
Corner forecast
4.2
Correcaminos
9.4
Expected corners
5.2
Tepatitlan de Morelos
Correcaminos corner stats · Tepatitlan de Morelos corner stats
Corner line 9.50
Over 49%
Under 51%
Match trends
- The corner model expects around 9.4 corners here; Correcaminos are forecast for 4.2.
- Correcaminos matches average 9.23 total corners (4.13 won per game) across their last 30 with corner data.
- Correcaminos games clear the 9.5 corner line 37% of the time.
- Tepatitlan de Morelos win 5.93 corners per game, with match totals averaging 9.98 over their last 41.
- Tepatitlan de Morelos games clear the 9.5 corner line 54% of the time.
- Correcaminos matches average 3.27 goals, with both teams scoring in 70% of them.
- Games involving Tepatitlan de Morelos produce 2.17 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 46%.
- The last 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.7 goals per game.
- Corners have averaged 10 across their last 6 direct meetings.
- The model leans Over 2.25 goals at 54% probability.
Correcaminos — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | A | D Mineros de Zacatecas | 3–3 | 6–2 |
| 2026-07-04 | H | D Chivas Guadalajara | 0–0 | 3–7 |
| 2026-04-18 | H | L Oaxaca | 1–3 | 4–5 |
| 2026-04-13 | A | L Mineros de Zacatecas | 1–3 | 1–5 |
| 2026-04-04 | H | L Cancun FC | 1–3 | 5–0 |
| 2026-03-29 | A | L Dorados | 1–2 | 5–2 |
| 2026-03-19 | A | L Jaiba Brava | 1–3 | 2–9 |
| 2026-03-14 | H | W Irapuato | 2–1 | 5–1 |
| 2026-03-07 | A | W Venados FC | 1–0 | 3–5 |
| 2026-02-28 | H | D Tapatio | 2–2 | 6–5 |
Tepatitlan de Morelos — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | H | L Alacranes de Durango | 0–1 | 4–7 |
| 2026-05-31 | A | L Jaiba Brava | 0–2 | 6–3 |
| 2026-05-24 | H | W Jaiba Brava | 3–1 | 8–1 |
| 2026-05-17 | H | W Jaiba Brava | 1–0 | 3–7 |
| 2026-05-10 | A | D Jaiba Brava | 0–0 | 7–4 |
| 2026-05-04 | H | D Mineros de Zacatecas | 1–1 | 4–1 |
| 2026-05-01 | A | D Mineros de Zacatecas | 1–1 | 5–6 |
| 2026-04-27 | H | W Atlante | 2–0 | 7–1 |
| 2026-04-24 | A | L Atlante | 0–2 | 3–5 |
| 2026-04-11 | A | D Club Atletico La Paz | 1–1 | 9–7 |
Match questions
- Who is predicted to win Correcaminos vs Tepatitlan de Morelos?
- Our model gives Correcaminos a 32% chance, the draw 29% and Tepatitlan de Morelos 39%. The most likely score is 1-1.
- How many corners are expected in Correcaminos vs Tepatitlan de Morelos?
- The corner model projects 9.4 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 49% probability.
- How are these predictions calculated?
- Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.