Europe Friendlies
De Graafschap vs Excelsior Prediction
Kickoff (UTC):
Predicted score
1-1
Expected goals1.40 – 1.86
Avg goals3.26
Our pickAway
De Graafschap 28%
Draw 25%
Excelsior 47%
Markets
| Market | Line | Our pick | Probability | Fair odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | – | Away | 47% | 2.11 | 1.75 |
| Double chance | – | Home or away | 75% | 1.33 | 1.12 |
| Goals | 3 | Over | 53% | 1.90 | 1.80 |
| Both teams to score | – | Yes | 65% | 1.55 | – |
| Asian handicap | 0.75 | Home +6% Value | 59% | 1.71 | 1.83 |
| Correct score | – | 1-1 +43% Value | 11% | 9.07 | 15.00 |
Bookmaker odds
| Match result (1X2) | Home 3.10 · Draw 4.50 · Away 1.75 |
| Goals 3 | Over 1.80 · Under 2.00 |
| Asian handicap 0.75 | Home 1.83 · Away 1.98 |
Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.
Match trends
- De Graafschap win 6.20 corners per game, with match totals averaging 12.02 over their last 45.
- De Graafschap games clear the 9.5 corner line 73% of the time.
- Across 37 recent matches, Excelsior games produced 8.89 corners on average — 3.86 taken by Excelsior themselves.
- Excelsior games clear the 9.5 corner line 38% of the time.
- De Graafschap matches average 3.56 goals, with both teams scoring in 76% of them.
- Games involving Excelsior produce 2.81 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 62%.
- The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals per game.
- Corners have averaged 10.1 across their last 10 direct meetings.
- The model leans Over 3.00 goals at 53% probability.
De Graafschap — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | H | W AE Kifisias | 4–2 | 2–8 |
| 2026-07-12 | H | L AEK Athens | 1–2 | 5–6 |
| 2026-06-27 | A | W FC Utrecht | 2–1 | 2–7 |
| 2026-05-10 | H | D Almere City | 2–2 | 7–5 |
| 2026-05-07 | A | L Almere City | 1–3 | 3–3 |
| 2026-04-25 | A | L FC Emmen | 0–1 | 6–7 |
| 2026-04-18 | H | W Cambuur Leeuwarden | 3–1 | 5–2 |
| 2026-04-11 | A | D VVV | 3–3 | 4–9 |
| 2026-04-06 | H | W AZ Reserves | 5–0 | 9–2 |
| 2026-04-04 | A | D FC Eindhoven | 2–2 | 5–3 |
Excelsior — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | A | W NAC | 3–1 | 6–2 |
| 2026-07-04 | H | W Cambuur Leeuwarden | 3–2 | 0–7 |
| 2026-05-17 | A | W Sparta Rotterdam | 3–2 | 2–5 |
| 2026-05-10 | H | D FC Volendam | 1–1 | 5–0 |
| 2026-05-03 | A | W FC Groningen | 3–2 | 8–5 |
| 2026-04-26 | H | W FC Utrecht | 4–0 | 1–2 |
| 2026-04-12 | A | D PEC Zwolle | 2–2 | 2–5 |
| 2026-04-05 | H | L NEC | 0–2 | 2–5 |
| 2026-03-21 | A | D Heracles | 1–1 | 1–6 |
| 2026-03-15 | A | L Feyenoord | 1–2 | 5–9 |
Match questions
- Who is predicted to win De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
- Our model gives De Graafschap a 28% chance, the draw 25% and Excelsior 47%. The most likely score is 1-1.
- How are these predictions calculated?
- Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.