Azerbaijan Premier League
FK Qarabag vs Shamakhi FK Prediction
Kickoff (UTC):
Predicted score
2-011%1-010%1-110%
Expected goals2.07 – 0.90
Avg goals2.97
Our pickHome
FK Qarabag 64%
Draw 21%
Shamakhi FK 15%
Markets
| Market | Line | Our pick | Probability | Fair odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | – | Home +7% Value | 64% | 1.56 | 1.67 |
| Double chance | – | Home or draw | 85% | 1.18 | 1.18 |
| Goals | 3.25 | Under +17% Value | 61% | 1.64 | 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | – | Yes | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | Home +10% Value | 59% | 1.69 | 1.88 |
| Corners | 9.5 | Over | 55% | 1.82 | – |
| Correct score | – | 2-0 | 11% | 9.07 | 26.00 |
Bookmaker odds
| Match result (1X2) | Home 1.67 · Draw 4.00 · Away 3.80 |
| Goals 3.25 | Over 1.85 · Under 1.95 |
| Asian handicap -0.75 | Home 1.88 · Away 1.93 |
Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.
Corner forecast
7.5
FK Qarabag
9.9
Expected corners
2.4
Shamakhi FK
FK Qarabag corner stats · Shamakhi FK corner stats
Corner line 9.50
Over 55%
Under 45%
Match trends
- The corner model expects around 9.9 corners here; FK Qarabag are forecast for 7.5.
- FK Qarabag matches average 9.70 total corners (6.43 won per game) across their last 60 with corner data.
- FK Qarabag games clear the 9.5 corner line 52% of the time.
- Shamakhi FK win 3.74 corners per game, with match totals averaging 8.11 over their last 38.
- Shamakhi FK games clear the 9.5 corner line 32% of the time.
- FK Qarabag matches average 3.25 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
- Games involving Shamakhi FK produce 2.16 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 42%.
- The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.1 goals per game.
- Corners have averaged 10.8 across their last 10 direct meetings.
- The model leans Under 3.25 goals at 61% probability.
FK Qarabag — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | H | W Dynamo Kyiv | 2–0 | 4–6 |
| 2026-08-07 | A | L Dynamo Kyiv | 0–1 | 11–4 |
| 2026-07-31 | A | D CSKA Sofia | 0–0 | 9–2 |
| 2026-07-24 | H | D CSKA Sofia | 0–0 | 8–2 |
| 2026-07-17 | A | W IF Vestri | 3–0 | 13–1 |
| 2026-07-10 | H | W IF Vestri | 3–0 | 9–0 |
| 2026-07-01 | A | L Ferencvarosi TC | 0–1 | 8–4 |
| 2026-07-01 | H | L FC Kharkiv | 2–6 | 6–6 |
| 2026-06-27 | A | W WSG Swarovski Tirol | 4–0 | 6–3 |
| 2026-05-22 | A | W FK Sumqayit | 4–3 | 1–6 |
Shamakhi FK — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | A | L FK Qabala | 1–3 | 3–4 |
| 2026-05-16 | H | W PFK Turan Tovuz | 3–2 | 4–5 |
| 2026-05-10 | A | L Neftchi Baku | 0–3 | 1–6 |
| 2026-05-03 | H | L Sabah | 0–3 | 4–8 |
| 2026-04-26 | H | W FK Kapaz | 2–0 | 3–3 |
| 2026-04-18 | A | L FK Karvan | 0–1 | 5–2 |
| 2026-04-11 | H | D FK Qarabag | 0–0 | 2–12 |
| 2026-04-07 | A | D Zira IK | 1–1 | 0–2 |
| 2026-03-18 | H | L Araz FK | 0–1 | 7–3 |
| 2026-03-14 | A | W FK Sumqayit | 1–0 | 7–8 |
Match questions
- Who is predicted to win FK Qarabag vs Shamakhi FK?
- Our model gives FK Qarabag a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Shamakhi FK 15%. The most likely score is 2-0.
- How many corners are expected in FK Qarabag vs Shamakhi FK?
- The corner model projects 9.9 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 55% probability.
- How are these predictions calculated?
- Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.