MathPredictions
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Brazil Copa Sergipe

Lagarto vs Falcon Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 1-1
Expected goals1.63 – 0.97
Avg goals2.60
Our pickHome
Lagarto 52% Draw 27% Falcon 21%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Home 52% 1.94 1.75
Double chance – Home or draw 79% 1.27 1.17
Goals 2.5 Under 52% 1.93 1.85
Both teams to score – Yes 51% 1.96 –
Correct score – 1-1 13% 7.74 7.50

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 1.75  ·  Draw 3.50  ·  Away 4.00
Goals 2.25 Over 1.95  ·  Under 1.85

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Match trends

  • Lagarto win 3.68 corners per game, with match totals averaging 8.21 over their last 28.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 46% of Lagarto matches.
  • Across 13 recent matches, Falcon games produced 8.08 corners on average — 3.92 taken by Falcon themselves.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 38% of Falcon matches.
  • Games involving Lagarto produce 2.57 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 57%.
  • Falcon matches average 1.62 goals, with both teams scoring in 31% of them.
  • Across their previous 8 meetings, these sides averaged 1.1 goals.
  • Head-to-head, the last 8 meetings with corner data averaged 6.4 corners.
  • On the goal line, our probabilities favour Under 2.50 (52%).

Lagarto — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-30 A W America SE 1–0 3–3
2026-06-28 A L CSA 0–2 3–8
2026-06-22 H D CSA 1–1 3–5
2026-06-15 H W Decisao 1–0 2–1
2026-05-31 A W Treze 2–1 3–2
2026-05-25 A D Retro 1–1 5–5
2026-05-17 H D Sergipe 1–1 2–8
2026-05-10 A D Serra Branca 0–0 5–6
2026-05-03 H L Serra Branca 1–2 6–8
2026-04-26 A L Sergipe 1–3 5–8

Falcon — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-30 H W AA Guarany 3–0 5–1
2026-02-21 A L Itabaiana 0–1 3–9
2026-02-12 A W AA Guarany 1–0 4–7
2026-02-08 A L America SE 1–2 5–7
2026-02-04 H W Atletico Gloriense 2–1 3–3
2026-02-01 A L Dorense 0–1 5–4
2026-01-22 A D Confianca 0–0 3–5
2026-01-17 H L Itabaiana 0–2 2–4
2026-01-11 A D Lagarto 0–0 0–0
2025-09-05 H L Itabaiana 1–2 7–6

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Lagarto vs Falcon?
Our model gives Lagarto a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Falcon 21%. The most likely score is 1-1.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.