MathPredictions
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Mexico Liga MX

Leon vs Pachuca Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 1-1
Expected goals1.25 – 1.56
Avg goals2.82
Our pickAway
Leon 29% Draw 27% Pachuca 43%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Away 43% 2.31 2.35
Double chance – Home or away 73% 1.37 1.34
Goals 2.75 Under 52% 1.91 1.90
Both teams to score – Yes 58% 1.73 1.57
Asian handicap 0.25 Away 50% 1.99 2.00
Corners 10 Under 51% 1.95 1.80
Correct score – 1-1 13% 7.76 6.50

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 3.10  ·  Draw 3.40  ·  Away 2.35
Goals 2.75 Over 1.90  ·  Under 1.90
Asian handicap 0.25 Home 1.80  ·  Away 2.00
Corners 10 Over 2.00  ·  Under 1.80

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Corner forecast

9.9 Expected corners

Leon corner stats · Pachuca corner stats

Corner line 10.00
Over 49% Under 51%

Match trends

  • Leon matches average 10.26 total corners (5.34 won per game) across their last 35 with corner data.
  • Leon games clear the 9.5 corner line 57% of the time.
  • Pachuca win 4.35 corners per game, with match totals averaging 8.98 over their last 43.
  • Pachuca games clear the 9.5 corner line 44% of the time.
  • Leon matches average 2.89 goals, with both teams scoring in 51% of them.
  • Games involving Pachuca produce 2.40 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 56%.
  • The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.6 goals per game.
  • Corners have averaged 11.4 across their last 10 direct meetings.
  • The model leans Under 2.75 goals at 52% probability.

Leon — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-25 A L Tijuana 0–1 10–3
2026-07-18 H L Atlas 2–3 6–2
2026-04-26 A L Toluca 1–4 7–2
2026-04-22 H L Club America 2–3 9–3
2026-04-19 H W Juarez FC 3–1 3–8
2026-04-11 A W Puebla 1–0 8–7
2026-04-05 H W Atlas 2–0 10–3
2026-03-22 A W Atletico San Luis 2–1 2–5
2026-03-19 A L Chivas Guadalajara 0–5 0–12
2026-03-15 H L Tijuana 0–3 6–2

Pachuca — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-27 H L Queretaro 1–2 1–6
2026-07-19 A W Unam Pumas 3–0 4–9
2026-05-18 A L Unam Pumas 0–1 3–3
2026-05-15 H W Unam Pumas 1–0 9–1
2026-05-11 H W Toluca 2–0 1–5
2026-05-04 A W Toluca 1–0 4–10
2026-04-26 H L Unam Pumas 0–2 8–4
2026-04-23 A L Tijuana 1–3 3–6
2026-04-19 A W Monterrey 3–1 4–7
2026-04-12 H W Santos Laguna 4–2 4–1

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Leon vs Pachuca?
Our model gives Leon a 29% chance, the draw 27% and Pachuca 43%. The most likely score is 1-1.
How many corners are expected in Leon vs Pachuca?
The corner model projects 9.9 total corners. Over 10.00 corners is rated at 49% probability.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.