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USA USL Championship

Lexington SC vs Monterey Bay FC Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 1-1
Expected goals1.87 – 0.94
Avg goals2.81
Our pickHome
Lexington SC 58% Draw 24% Monterey Bay FC 17%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Home 58% 1.72 1.55
Double chance – Home or draw 83% 1.21 1.10
Goals 2.75 Under 52% 1.91 1.90
Both teams to score – Yes 53% 1.90 1.80
Asian handicap -1 Away 55% 1.83 1.83
Corners 9.5 Under 63% 1.59 –
Correct score – 1-1 12% 8.61 8.00

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 1.55  ·  Draw 3.75  ·  Away 4.75
Goals 2.75 Over 1.90  ·  Under 1.90
Asian handicap -1 Home 1.98  ·  Away 1.83

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Corner forecast

4.9 Lexington SC
8.5 Expected corners
3.6 Monterey Bay FC

Lexington SC corner stats · Monterey Bay FC corner stats

Corner line 9.50
Over 37% Under 63%

Match trends

  • Our model projects 8.5 corners in this match, with Lexington SC winning 4.9 of them.
  • Lexington SC matches average 8.57 total corners (4.63 won per game) across their last 35 with corner data.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 43% of Lexington SC matches.
  • Monterey Bay FC win 4.30 corners per game, with match totals averaging 8.42 over their last 33.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 24% of Monterey Bay FC matches.
  • Games involving Lexington SC produce 2.91 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 54%.
  • Monterey Bay FC matches average 2.73 goals, with both teams scoring in 55% of them.
  • Across their previous 3 meetings, these sides averaged 2.3 goals.
  • Head-to-head, the last 3 meetings with corner data averaged 11.3 corners.
  • On the goal line, our probabilities favour Under 2.75 (52%).

Lexington SC — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-26 A D Tulsa 0–0 4–6
2026-07-23 H W Oakland Roots 2–0 3–6
2026-07-16 H L New Mexico United 1–4 4–1
2026-07-12 A L Louisville City FC 2–4 5–3
2026-07-05 A W Tampa Bay Rowdies 4–1 2–12
2026-06-21 H D Indy Eleven 0–0 10–3
2026-06-14 H W San Antonio FC 2–0 1–6
2026-06-07 A D Detroit City FC 1–1 3–3
2026-05-31 A W El Paso Locomotive FC 4–1 7–3
2026-05-24 A L Indy Eleven 1–3 6–5

Monterey Bay FC — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-26 H L Orange County SC 1–2 7–1
2026-07-19 A L Phoenix Rising FC 2–3 3–9
2026-07-12 H L Las Vegas Lights FC 2–3 6–4
2026-07-05 A D San Antonio FC 0–0 5–2
2026-06-21 H W El Paso Locomotive FC 1–0 4–3
2026-06-18 A L Tulsa 0–2 5–2
2026-06-11 H W Sporting JAX 2–1 5–4
2026-06-07 A D Sacramento Republic 1–1 6–6
2026-05-31 H W Loudoun United FC 4–1 2–5
2026-05-24 H W Birmingham Legion FC 2–0 4–4

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Lexington SC vs Monterey Bay FC?
Our model gives Lexington SC a 58% chance, the draw 24% and Monterey Bay FC 17%. The most likely score is 1-1.
How many corners are expected in Lexington SC vs Monterey Bay FC?
The corner model projects 8.5 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 37% probability.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.