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USA USL Championship

Lexington SC vs Phoenix Rising FC Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 1-111%2-110%1-09%
Expected goals1.75 – 1.20
Avg goals2.95
Our pickHome
Lexington SC 50% Draw 24% Phoenix Rising FC 26%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Home 50% 2.00 1.80
Double chance – Home or away 76% 1.32 1.24
Goals 2.75 Over 51% 1.96 1.83
Both teams to score – Yes 58% 1.72 1.67
Asian handicap -0.5 Away 50% 2.00 2.00
Corners 9.5 Under 54% 1.84 1.80
Correct score – 1-1 11% 8.74 7.00

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 1.80  ·  Draw 3.60  ·  Away 4.00
Goals 2.75 Over 1.83  ·  Under 1.98
Asian handicap -0.5 Home 1.80  ·  Away 2.00
Corners 9 Over 2.00  ·  Under 1.80

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Corner forecast

5.2 Lexington SC
9.2 Expected corners
3.9 Phoenix Rising FC

Lexington SC corner stats · Phoenix Rising FC corner stats

Corner line 9.50
Over 46% Under 54%

Match trends

  • Our model projects 9.2 corners in this match, with Lexington SC winning 5.2 of them.
  • Across 35 recent matches, Lexington SC games produced 8.80 corners on average — 4.86 taken by Lexington SC themselves.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 46% of Lexington SC matches.
  • Phoenix Rising FC matches average 9.62 total corners (4.69 won per game) across their last 39 with corner data.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 51% of Phoenix Rising FC matches.
  • Games involving Lexington SC produce 2.94 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 54%.
  • Phoenix Rising FC matches average 2.62 goals, with both teams scoring in 49% of them.
  • On the goal line, our probabilities favour Over 2.75 (51%).

Lexington SC — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-08-02 H W Monterey Bay FC 3–2 11–5
2026-07-26 A D Tulsa 0–0 4–6
2026-07-23 H W Oakland Roots 2–0 3–6
2026-07-16 H L New Mexico United 1–4 4–1
2026-07-12 A L Louisville City FC 2–4 5–3
2026-07-05 A W Tampa Bay Rowdies 4–1 2–12
2026-06-21 H D Indy Eleven 0–0 10–3
2026-06-14 H W San Antonio FC 2–0 1–6
2026-06-07 A D Detroit City FC 1–1 3–3
2026-05-31 A W El Paso Locomotive FC 4–1 7–3

Phoenix Rising FC — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-08-02 A D Las Vegas Lights FC 1–1 5–6
2026-07-26 H D Hartford Athletic 0–0 6–0
2026-07-19 H W Monterey Bay FC 3–2 9–3
2026-07-12 A L Antelope Valley Alta 1–2 6–6
2026-07-05 A L Colorado Switchbacks FC 1–3 2–14
2026-06-21 H L Oakland Roots 3–4 9–2
2026-06-14 A D El Paso Locomotive FC 1–1 4–0
2026-06-11 H L Louisville City FC 0–2 7–4
2026-06-07 A L New Mexico United 0–4 8–5
2026-05-31 H W Sacramento Republic 2–0 5–5

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Lexington SC vs Phoenix Rising FC?
Our model gives Lexington SC a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Phoenix Rising FC 26%. The most likely score is 1-1.
How many corners are expected in Lexington SC vs Phoenix Rising FC?
The corner model projects 9.2 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 46% probability.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.