MathPredictions
▾

Europe Friendlies

Maritimo vs Nacional Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 1-1
Expected goals1.37 – 1.23
Avg goals2.60
Our pickHome
Maritimo 39% Draw 29% Nacional 32%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Home 39% 2.56 2.30
Double chance – Home or away 71% 1.41 1.22
Goals 2.5 Under 52% 1.93 2.00
Both teams to score – Yes 54% 1.85 –
Correct score – 1-1 14% 7.27 7.00

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 2.30  ·  Draw 3.40  ·  Away 2.60
Goals 2.5 Over 1.80  ·  Under 2.00

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Match trends

  • Maritimo win 4.56 corners per game, with match totals averaging 8.33 over their last 36.
  • Maritimo games clear the 9.5 corner line 28% of the time.
  • Across 37 recent matches, Nacional games produced 10.65 corners on average — 4.41 taken by Nacional themselves.
  • Nacional games clear the 9.5 corner line 65% of the time.
  • Maritimo matches average 2.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 42% of them.
  • Games involving Nacional produce 2.57 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 49%.
  • The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2 goals per game.
  • Corners have averaged 9.2 across their last 10 direct meetings.
  • The model leans Under 2.50 goals at 52% probability.

Maritimo — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-05-16 H L Chaves 1–3 6–2
2026-05-09 A L Penafiel 0–1 2–1
2026-05-01 H W Leixoes 3–2 2–1
2026-04-27 A W Benfica B 2–1 2–5
2026-04-19 A L Torreense 0–1 2–4
2026-04-12 H W Portimonense 1–0 4–2
2026-04-04 A D Pacos Ferreira 0–0 8–6
2026-03-21 H W UD Oliveirense 1–0 5–1
2026-03-15 A W UD Leiria 2–1 2–7
2026-03-08 H W FC Porto B 2–1 12–3

Nacional — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-05-17 H W Guimaraes 2–0 2–6
2026-05-12 A L Santa Clara 0–2 6–4
2026-05-02 H L AVS 1–2 8–6
2026-04-25 A W Tondela 2–0 7–8
2026-04-18 H W Alverca 1–0 4–8
2026-04-13 A L Benfica 0–2 1–15
2026-04-04 H W Estrela Amadora 2–0 5–6
2026-03-21 A L Famalicao 0–1 6–7
2026-03-15 H L Estoril 0–1 5–4
2026-03-07 A D Moreirense 1–1 7–4

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Maritimo vs Nacional?
Our model gives Maritimo a 39% chance, the draw 29% and Nacional 32%. The most likely score is 1-1.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.