Norway Eliteserien
Molde vs Sarpsborg Prediction
Kickoff (UTC):
Predicted score
1-1
Expected goals1.94 – 1.14
Avg goals3.09
Our pickHome
Molde 55%
Draw 24%
Sarpsborg 21%
Markets
| Market | Line | Our pick | Probability | Fair odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | – | Home | 55% | 1.82 | 1.62 |
| Double chance | – | Home or draw | 79% | 1.27 | 1.18 |
| Goals | 3.25 | Under +12% Value | 58% | 1.72 | 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | – | Yes | 59% | 1.69 | 1.50 |
| Asian handicap | -1 | Away | 58% | 1.73 | 1.78 |
| Corners | 10.5 | Under | 52% | 1.92 | 1.80 |
| Correct score | – | 1-1 | 11% | 8.96 | 8.50 |
Bookmaker odds
| Match result (1X2) | Home 1.62 · Draw 4.33 · Away 4.75 |
| Goals 3.25 | Over 1.85 · Under 1.95 |
| Asian handicap -1 | Home 2.03 · Away 1.78 |
| Corners 10.5 | Over 2.00 · Under 1.80 |
Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.
Corner forecast
6.2
Molde
10.3
Expected corners
4.1
Sarpsborg
Molde corner stats · Sarpsborg corner stats
Corner line 10.50
Over 48%
Under 52%
Match trends
- The corner model expects around 10.3 corners here; Molde are forecast for 6.2.
- Molde win 5.56 corners per game, with match totals averaging 10.11 over their last 36.
- Molde games clear the 9.5 corner line 50% of the time.
- Across 39 recent matches, Sarpsborg games produced 11.28 corners on average — 5.38 taken by Sarpsborg themselves.
- Sarpsborg games clear the 9.5 corner line 59% of the time.
- Molde matches average 3.06 goals, with both teams scoring in 61% of them.
- Games involving Sarpsborg produce 3.23 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 59%.
- The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.1 goals per game.
- Corners have averaged 10.9 across their last 10 direct meetings.
- The model leans Under 3.25 goals at 58% probability.
Molde — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | A | W KFUM | 4–2 | 9–3 |
| 2026-07-19 | H | L SK Brann | 1–2 | 6–4 |
| 2026-07-11 | A | D Aalesund | 2–2 | 7–2 |
| 2026-07-05 | A | L Rosenborg | 1–2 | 4–4 |
| 2026-06-28 | H | L Bodo/Glimt | 1–4 | 4–3 |
| 2026-06-22 | H | W KFUM | 5–1 | 9–2 |
| 2026-05-30 | H | W Sandefjord | 2–1 | 6–10 |
| 2026-05-25 | A | L Sarpsborg | 1–2 | 8–2 |
| 2026-05-16 | H | W Kristiansund BK | 1–0 | 3–6 |
| 2026-05-10 | A | L Tromso | 0–2 | 4–5 |
Sarpsborg — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | H | W HamKam | 1–0 | 4–3 |
| 2026-07-18 | A | D Kristiansund BK | 0–0 | 8–4 |
| 2026-07-13 | H | W Viking FK | 1–0 | 3–4 |
| 2026-07-03 | A | L Lillestrom | 1–3 | 4–8 |
| 2026-05-30 | A | W SK Brann | 2–1 | 5–8 |
| 2026-05-25 | H | W Molde | 2–1 | 2–8 |
| 2026-05-17 | A | L Valerenga | 2–3 | 0–7 |
| 2026-05-09 | H | W Fredrikstad | 2–1 | 11–3 |
| 2026-05-03 | A | L Lillestrom | 0–4 | 3–3 |
| 2026-04-26 | A | L KFUM | 0–1 | 2–1 |
Match questions
- Who is predicted to win Molde vs Sarpsborg?
- Our model gives Molde a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Sarpsborg 21%. The most likely score is 1-1.
- How many corners are expected in Molde vs Sarpsborg?
- The corner model projects 10.3 total corners. Over 10.50 corners is rated at 48% probability.
- How are these predictions calculated?
- Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.