Japan J2-League
Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi City Prediction
Kickoff (UTC):
Predicted score
1-112%2-19%1-28%
Expected goals1.47 – 1.41
Avg goals2.88
Our pickHome
Montedio Yamagata 38%
Draw 26%
Tochigi City 36%
Markets
| Market | Line | Our pick | Probability | Fair odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | – | Home | 38% | 2.61 | 2.50 |
| Double chance | – | Home or away | 74% | 1.35 | 1.31 |
| Goals | 2.5 | Over +7% Value | 55% | 1.82 | 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | – | Yes | 59% | 1.70 | 1.73 |
| Asian handicap | 0 | Home | 52% | 1.94 | 1.83 |
| Corners | 10.5 | Under | 53% | 1.89 | 1.98 |
| Correct score | – | 1-1 | 12% | 8.26 | 6.50 |
Bookmaker odds
| Match result (1X2) | Home 2.50 · Draw 3.25 · Away 2.75 |
| Goals 2.5 | Over 2.03 · Under 1.78 |
| Asian handicap 0 | Home 1.83 · Away 1.98 |
| Corners 10 | Over 1.83 · Under 1.98 |
Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.
Corner forecast
4.3
Montedio Yamagata
10.3
Expected corners
5.9
Tochigi City
Montedio Yamagata corner stats · Tochigi City corner stats
Corner line 10.50
Over 47%
Under 53%
Match trends
- The corner model expects around 10.3 corners here; Montedio Yamagata are forecast for 4.3.
- Across 38 recent matches, Montedio Yamagata games produced 10.00 corners on average — 4.26 taken by Montedio Yamagata themselves.
- Montedio Yamagata games clear the 9.5 corner line 55% of the time.
- Tochigi City matches average 9.97 total corners (5.44 won per game) across their last 36 with corner data.
- Tochigi City games clear the 9.5 corner line 61% of the time.
- Montedio Yamagata matches average 2.79 goals, with both teams scoring in 66% of them.
- Games involving Tochigi City produce 3.17 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 53%.
- The model leans Over 2.50 goals at 55% probability.
Montedio Yamagata — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | A | L Albirex Niigata | 0–1 | 5–4 |
| 2026-07-25 | A | W Albirex Niigata | 4–3 | 7–8 |
| 2026-06-07 | A | L Oita | 0–1 | 5–6 |
| 2026-05-31 | H | D Matsumoto Y FC | 1–1 | 7–6 |
| 2026-05-24 | H | W Shonan Bellmare | 3–1 | 3–5 |
| 2026-05-16 | A | L Tochigi City | 0–3 | 3–6 |
| 2026-05-10 | H | L Sagamihara | 2–3 | 2–6 |
| 2026-05-06 | H | L Thespa Gunma | 1–2 | 5–3 |
| 2026-05-03 | H | D Tochigi SC | 2–2 | 3–8 |
| 2026-04-29 | A | L Blaublitz Akita | 0–2 | 3–5 |
Tochigi City — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | H | W Reilac Shiga | 3–1 | 5–5 |
| 2026-05-30 | H | D Jubilo Iwata | 2–2 | 7–4 |
| 2026-05-24 | A | L Blaublitz Akita | 0–1 | 3–4 |
| 2026-05-16 | H | W Montedio Yamagata | 3–0 | 6–3 |
| 2026-05-09 | A | D Thespa Gunma | 0–0 | 8–3 |
| 2026-05-06 | H | D Yokohama FC | 2–2 | 4–2 |
| 2026-05-02 | A | W Shonan Bellmare | 2–1 | 4–6 |
| 2026-04-29 | A | L Sagamihara | 0–1 | 10–5 |
| 2026-04-25 | H | W Tochigi SC | 2–1 | 4–6 |
| 2026-04-18 | A | L Vegalta Sendai | 0–5 | 2–7 |
Match questions
- Who is predicted to win Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi City?
- Our model gives Montedio Yamagata a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Tochigi City 36%. The most likely score is 1-1.
- How many corners are expected in Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi City?
- The corner model projects 10.3 total corners. Over 10.50 corners is rated at 47% probability.
- How are these predictions calculated?
- Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.