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USA USL Championship

Monterey Bay FC vs New Mexico United Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

LIVE 13′ 0–1

Corners4–0
Yellow cards0–0
Shots on target0–2
Shots off target4–0
Attacks16–10
Dangerous attacks18–8
Possession60%–40%
Predicted score 1-113%0-19%1-29%
Expected goals1.25 – 1.39
Avg goals2.63
Our pickAway
Monterey Bay FC 33% Draw 27% New Mexico United 40%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Away +15% Value 40% 2.52 2.70
Double chance – Home or away 73% 1.37 1.21
Goals 2.75 Under +11% Value 57% 1.74 2.03
Both teams to score – Yes 54% 1.86 1.53
Asian handicap -0.25 Away +15% Value 62% 1.62 1.80
Corners 9.5 Under 57% 1.75 1.98
Correct score – 1-1 13% 7.73 7.00

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 2.20  ·  Draw 3.40  ·  Away 2.70
Goals 2.75 Over 1.78  ·  Under 2.03
Asian handicap -0.25 Home 2.00  ·  Away 1.80
Corners 8.5 Over 1.83  ·  Under 1.98

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Corner forecast

5.3 Monterey Bay FC
8.9 Expected corners
3.6 New Mexico United

Monterey Bay FC corner stats · New Mexico United corner stats

Corner line 9.50
Over 43% Under 57%

Match trends

  • The corner model expects around 8.9 corners here; Monterey Bay FC are forecast for 5.3.
  • Monterey Bay FC win 4.35 corners per game, with match totals averaging 8.71 over their last 34.
  • Monterey Bay FC games clear the 9.5 corner line 26% of the time.
  • Across 37 recent matches, New Mexico United games produced 9.00 corners on average — 3.81 taken by New Mexico United themselves.
  • New Mexico United games clear the 9.5 corner line 46% of the time.
  • Monterey Bay FC matches average 2.68 goals, with both teams scoring in 53% of them.
  • Games involving New Mexico United produce 2.89 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 49%.
  • The last 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.8 goals per game.
  • Corners have averaged 9 across their last 8 direct meetings.
  • The model leans Under 2.75 goals at 57% probability.

Monterey Bay FC — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-08-06 A L El Paso Locomotive FC 0–1 3–6
2026-08-02 A L Lexington SC 2–3 5–11
2026-07-26 H L Orange County SC 1–2 7–1
2026-07-19 A L Phoenix Rising FC 2–3 3–9
2026-07-12 H L Las Vegas Lights FC 2–3 6–4
2026-07-05 A D San Antonio FC 0–0 5–2
2026-06-21 H W El Paso Locomotive FC 1–0 4–3
2026-06-18 A L Tulsa 0–2 5–2
2026-06-11 H W Sporting JAX 2–1 5–4
2026-06-07 A D Sacramento Republic 1–1 6–6

New Mexico United — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-08-02 H W Colorado Switchbacks FC 1–0 3–14
2026-07-16 A W Lexington SC 4–1 1–4
2026-07-12 A W El Paso Locomotive FC 2–0 8–4
2026-07-05 H W Oakland Roots 2–1 4–3
2026-06-21 A W Sacramento Republic 1–0 3–5
2026-06-14 H D Orange County SC 1–1 3–4
2026-06-07 H W Phoenix Rising FC 4–0 5–8
2026-05-31 A D Hartford Athletic 0–0 2–8
2026-05-24 H W Charleston Battery 1–0 4–6
2026-05-21 H L Tampa Bay Rowdies 0–1 4–7

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Monterey Bay FC vs New Mexico United?
Our model gives Monterey Bay FC a 33% chance, the draw 27% and New Mexico United 40%. The most likely score is 1-1.
How many corners are expected in Monterey Bay FC vs New Mexico United?
The corner model projects 8.9 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 43% probability.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.