Poland Ekstraklasa
Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction
Kickoff (UTC):
Predicted score
1-1
Expected goals1.47 – 1.52
Avg goals2.98
Our pickAway
Motor Lublin 36%
Draw 27%
Jagiellonia Bialystok 38%
Markets
| Market | Line | Our pick | Probability | Fair odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | – | Away | 38% | 2.64 | 2.25 |
| Double chance | – | Home or away | 73% | 1.36 | 1.25 |
| Goals | 2.75 | Over | 52% | 1.93 | 1.80 |
| Both teams to score | – | Yes | 61% | 1.63 | 1.57 |
| Asian handicap | 0.25 | Home | 56% | 1.78 | 1.80 |
| Corners | 9.5 | Over | 54% | 1.87 | 1.85 |
| Correct score | – | 1-1 | 12% | 8.08 | 7.00 |
Bookmaker odds
| Match result (1X2) | Home 2.80 · Draw 3.40 · Away 2.25 |
| Goals 2.75 | Over 1.80 · Under 2.00 |
| Asian handicap 0.25 | Home 1.80 · Away 2.00 |
| Corners 9.5 | Over 1.85 · Under 1.95 |
Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.
Corner forecast
4.6
Motor Lublin
9.8
Expected corners
5.2
Jagiellonia Bialystok
Motor Lublin corner stats · Jagiellonia Bialystok corner stats
Corner line 9.50
Over 54%
Under 46%
Match trends
- The corner model expects around 9.8 corners here; Motor Lublin are forecast for 4.6.
- Motor Lublin win 4.94 corners per game, with match totals averaging 9.94 over their last 36.
- Motor Lublin games clear the 9.5 corner line 56% of the time.
- Across 53 recent matches, Jagiellonia Bialystok games produced 9.57 corners on average — 5.26 taken by Jagiellonia Bialystok themselves.
- Jagiellonia Bialystok games clear the 9.5 corner line 49% of the time.
- Motor Lublin matches average 2.94 goals, with both teams scoring in 61% of them.
- Games involving Jagiellonia Bialystok produce 2.72 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 62%.
- The last 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals per game.
- Corners have averaged 9.2 across their last 6 direct meetings.
- The model leans Over 2.75 goals at 52% probability.
Motor Lublin — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | A | D Widzew Lodz | 2–2 | 5–3 |
| 2026-07-03 | H | W Warta Poznan | 4–1 | 2–6 |
| 2026-06-27 | H | W Dinamo Bucharest | 3–1 | 3–3 |
| 2026-05-23 | A | L Legia Warsaw | 0–4 | 3–5 |
| 2026-05-16 | H | D Cracovia Krakow | 3–3 | 2–7 |
| 2026-05-10 | A | W Wisla Plock | 4–0 | 6–7 |
| 2026-05-03 | H | L Lech Poznan | 0–1 | 3–7 |
| 2026-04-26 | A | L Widzew Lodz | 0–2 | 6–4 |
| 2026-04-18 | A | L GKS Katowice | 2–3 | 7–4 |
| 2026-04-12 | H | D Rakow Czestochowa | 1–1 | 7–4 |
Jagiellonia Bialystok — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | H | W Korona Kielce | 1–0 | 3–6 |
| 2026-07-17 | A | W FC Nordsjaelland | 2–1 | 1–0 |
| 2026-07-17 | H | W Sparta Prague | 1–0 | 2–9 |
| 2026-07-12 | A | W Pafos FC | 1–0 | 8–4 |
| 2026-07-04 | H | W Pogon Siedlce | 4–1 | 5–3 |
| 2026-05-23 | H | W Zaglebie Lubin | 1–0 | 6–1 |
| 2026-05-17 | A | D GKS Katowice | 2–2 | 9–4 |
| 2026-05-14 | A | W Rakow Czestochowa | 2–0 | 4–6 |
| 2026-05-09 | H | W Pogon Szczecin | 3–2 | 7–0 |
| 2026-04-25 | H | L Gornik Zabrze | 1–2 | 7–2 |
Match questions
- Who is predicted to win Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?
- Our model gives Motor Lublin a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Jagiellonia Bialystok 38%. The most likely score is 1-1.
- How many corners are expected in Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?
- The corner model projects 9.8 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 54% probability.
- How are these predictions calculated?
- Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.