New Zealand Central Premier League
Napier City Rovers vs Petone FC Prediction
Kickoff (UTC):
Predicted score
2-0
Expected goals2.51 – 0.75
Avg goals3.26
Our pickHome
Napier City Rovers 75%
Draw 17%
Petone FC 8%
Markets
| Market | Line | Our pick | Probability | Fair odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | – | Home | 75% | 1.33 | 1.13 |
| Double chance | – | Home or draw | 92% | 1.09 | 0.99 |
| Goals | 4 | Under +33% Value | 72% | 1.39 | 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | – | No | 51% | 1.96 | – |
| Asian handicap | -2.5 | Away +29% Value | 68% | 1.47 | 1.90 |
| Correct score | – | 2-0 +714% Value | 12% | 8.23 | 67.00 |
Bookmaker odds
| Match result (1X2) | Home 1.13 · Draw 8.00 · Away 10.00 |
| Goals 4 | Over 1.85 · Under 1.95 |
| Asian handicap -2.5 | Home 1.90 · Away 1.90 |
Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.
Match trends
- Across 17 recent matches, Napier City Rovers games produced 11.00 corners on average — 6.76 taken by Napier City Rovers themselves.
- Napier City Rovers games clear the 9.5 corner line 65% of the time.
- Petone FC matches average 9.06 total corners (5.35 won per game) across their last 17 with corner data.
- Petone FC games clear the 9.5 corner line 53% of the time.
- Napier City Rovers matches average 3.41 goals, with both teams scoring in 41% of them.
- Games involving Petone FC produce 3.06 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 53%.
- The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.6 goals per game.
- Corners have averaged 9.2 across their last 10 direct meetings.
- The model leans Under 4.00 goals at 72% probability.
Napier City Rovers — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | A | W Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 2–1 | 8–4 |
| 2026-07-12 | H | W Upper Hutt City | 5–1 | 7–8 |
| 2026-07-04 | A | W Petone FC | 4–0 | 6–8 |
| 2026-06-20 | A | W Island Bay United | 1–0 | 8–4 |
| 2026-06-06 | A | D Western Suburbs | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| 2026-05-30 | H | W Island Bay United | 3–0 | 8–2 |
| 2026-05-16 | A | L Miramar Rangers | 1–2 | 6–8 |
| 2026-05-10 | H | W Waterside Karori | 5–0 | 5–1 |
| 2026-05-02 | A | W Petone FC | 1–0 | 1–2 |
| 2026-04-26 | H | W Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 2–1 | 11–3 |
Petone FC — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | H | D Miramar Rangers | 1–1 | 4–9 |
| 2026-07-11 | A | L Waterside Karori | 0–1 | 11–1 |
| 2026-07-04 | H | L Napier City Rovers | 0–4 | 8–6 |
| 2026-06-27 | H | D Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 1–1 | 5–5 |
| 2026-06-06 | A | L Upper Hutt City | 0–2 | 5–1 |
| 2026-05-24 | A | L Island Bay United | 0–2 | 8–2 |
| 2026-05-16 | A | L Wellington Olympic | 1–5 | 6–2 |
| 2026-05-09 | A | L Western Suburbs | 0–1 | 3–8 |
| 2026-05-02 | H | L Napier City Rovers | 0–1 | 2–1 |
| 2026-04-25 | A | L Miramar Rangers | 1–4 | 3–2 |
Match questions
- Who is predicted to win Napier City Rovers vs Petone FC?
- Our model gives Napier City Rovers a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Petone FC 8%. The most likely score is 2-0.
- How are these predictions calculated?
- Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.