MathPredictions
▾

USA MLS

New York City vs Toronto FC Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 1-1
Expected goals1.92 – 0.97
Avg goals2.90
Our pickHome
New York City 59% Draw 24% Toronto FC 18%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Home 59% 1.71 1.62
Double chance – Home or draw 82% 1.21 1.15
Goals 2.75 Under 50% 1.99 1.95
Both teams to score – Yes 54% 1.85 1.70
Asian handicap -0.75 Home 53% 1.88 1.83
Corners 9.5 Over 54% 1.86 1.90
Correct score – 1-1 11% 8.80 7.50

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 1.62  ·  Draw 4.00  ·  Away 5.25
Goals 2.75 Over 1.85  ·  Under 1.95
Asian handicap -0.75 Home 1.83  ·  Away 1.98
Corners 9.5 Over 1.90  ·  Under 1.90

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Corner forecast

5.5 New York City
9.8 Expected corners
4.4 Toronto FC

New York City corner stats · Toronto FC corner stats

Corner line 9.50
Over 54% Under 46%

Match trends

  • Our model projects 9.8 corners in this match, with New York City winning 5.5 of them.
  • Across 38 recent matches, New York City games produced 8.92 corners on average — 4.18 taken by New York City themselves.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 37% of New York City matches.
  • Toronto FC matches average 11.07 total corners (5.33 won per game) across their last 30 with corner data.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 67% of Toronto FC matches.
  • Games involving New York City produce 3.03 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 58%.
  • Toronto FC matches average 2.90 goals, with both teams scoring in 77% of them.
  • On the goal line, our probabilities favour Under 2.75 (50%).

New York City — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-26 H W Chicago Fire 3–1 1–2
2026-07-23 A W Columbus Crew 2–1 0–3
2026-05-24 A L Nashville SC 1–2 3–6
2026-05-21 A L Columbus Crew 0–1 4–3
2026-05-17 A D NY Red Bulls 1–1 3–9
2026-05-14 A W Charlotte FC 1–0 2–8
2026-05-11 H W Columbus Crew 3–0 3–8
2026-05-04 H L DC United 0–2 6–3
2026-04-30 A W NY Red Bulls 3–1 11–6
2026-04-26 A L CF Montreal 0–1 1–3

Toronto FC — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-26 A L DC United 1–2 5–8
2026-07-23 A D New England 0–0 9–7
2026-07-17 A D CF Montreal 0–0 3–9
2026-05-24 A L Chicago Fire 1–2 4–3
2026-05-17 A L Charlotte FC 1–3 3–7
2026-05-10 H L Inter Miami 2–4 4–4
2026-05-06 H L Atletico Ottawa 1–3 3–6
2026-05-03 H D San Jose 1–1 8–9
2026-04-26 H L Atlanta Utd 1–2 8–7
2026-04-23 H D Philadelphia 3–3 2–2

Match questions

Who is predicted to win New York City vs Toronto FC?
Our model gives New York City a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Toronto FC 18%. The most likely score is 1-1.
How many corners are expected in New York City vs Toronto FC?
The corner model projects 9.8 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 54% probability.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.