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New Zealand Southern League

Nomads United vs Nelson Suburbs Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 1-1
Expected goals2.07 – 1.78
Avg goals3.85
Our pickHome
Nomads United 45% Draw 23% Nelson Suburbs 33%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Home +9% Value 45% 2.24 3.00
Double chance – Home or away 78% 1.29 1.17
Goals 3.5 Over 54% 1.86 1.85
Both teams to score – Yes 73% 1.36 –
Asian handicap 0.25 Home +23% Value 63% 1.59 2.00
Corners 9.5 Over 62% 1.60 –
Correct score – 1-1 9% 11.59 9.50

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 3.00  ·  Draw 4.00  ·  Away 1.91
Goals 3.5 Over 1.85  ·  Under 1.95
Asian handicap 0 Home 2.00  ·  Away 1.80

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Corner forecast

5.0 Nomads United
10.7 Expected corners
5.6 Nelson Suburbs

Nomads United corner stats · Nelson Suburbs corner stats

Corner line 9.50
Over 62% Under 38%

Match trends

  • The corner model expects around 10.7 corners here; Nomads United are forecast for 5.
  • Across 25 recent matches, Nomads United games produced 10.60 corners on average — 6.32 taken by Nomads United themselves.
  • Nomads United games clear the 9.5 corner line 60% of the time.
  • Nelson Suburbs matches average 12.00 total corners (6.87 won per game) across their last 23 with corner data.
  • Nelson Suburbs games clear the 9.5 corner line 70% of the time.
  • Nomads United matches average 3.56 goals, with both teams scoring in 64% of them.
  • Games involving Nelson Suburbs produce 4.57 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 52%.
  • The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.2 goals per game.
  • Corners have averaged 12.7 across their last 10 direct meetings.
  • The model leans Over 3.50 goals at 54% probability.

Nomads United — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-18 H W Dunedin City Royals FC 2–0 6–4
2026-07-12 A L Coastal Spirit 0–1 2–7
2026-06-27 H D Christchurch United 0–0 3–6
2026-06-21 A D Cashmere Technical 2–2 6–5
2026-06-14 H L Nelson Suburbs 0–2 12–7
2026-06-06 H W Northern AFC 2–0 11–2
2026-05-29 A D Christchurch United 0–0 10–0
2026-05-23 A W Wanaka AFC 2–0 8–4
2026-05-16 H D Ferrymead Bays 1–1 4–2
2026-05-09 H D Coastal Spirit 1–1 7–0

Nelson Suburbs — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-26 H W Auckland United FC 2–1 3–7
2026-07-18 A W Selwyn United 2–1 5–4
2026-07-12 H W Northern AFC 11–0 4–0
2026-07-04 H W Northern AFC 5–0 11–4
2026-06-28 A W Dunedin City Royals FC 4–1 5–3
2026-06-20 H W Wanaka AFC 6–0 17–4
2026-06-14 A W Nomads United 2–0 7–12
2026-06-07 A W Coastal Spirit 5–3 8–2
2026-05-24 H L Ferrymead Bays 2–3 8–5
2026-05-16 A W Christchurch United 3–1 6–3

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Nomads United vs Nelson Suburbs?
Our model gives Nomads United a 45% chance, the draw 23% and Nelson Suburbs 33%. The most likely score is 1-1.
How many corners are expected in Nomads United vs Nelson Suburbs?
The corner model projects 10.7 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 62% probability.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.