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Kazakhstan Premier League

Ordabasy Shymkent vs Tobol Kostanay Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 1-1
Expected goals1.82 – 0.87
Avg goals2.68
Our pickHome
Ordabasy Shymkent 59% Draw 25% Tobol Kostanay 16%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Home 59% 1.70 1.53
Double chance – Home or draw 84% 1.20 1.10
Goals 2.75 Under +7% Value 56% 1.79 1.83
Both teams to score – No 50% 1.98 –
Asian handicap -1.25 Away +8% Value 61% 1.65 1.95
Corners 9.5 Under 52% 1.91 –
Correct score – 1-1 +7% Value 12% 8.45 8.50

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 1.53  ·  Draw 3.90  ·  Away 5.00
Goals 2.75 Over 1.98  ·  Under 1.83
Asian handicap -1 Home 1.85  ·  Away 1.95

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Corner forecast

5.7 Ordabasy Shymkent
9.3 Expected corners
3.6 Tobol Kostanay

Ordabasy Shymkent corner stats · Tobol Kostanay corner stats

Corner line 9.50
Over 48% Under 52%

Match trends

  • Our model projects 9.3 corners in this match, with Ordabasy Shymkent winning 5.7 of them.
  • Ordabasy Shymkent matches average 9.31 total corners (5.84 won per game) across their last 32 with corner data.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 47% of Ordabasy Shymkent matches.
  • Tobol Kostanay win 4.74 corners per game, with match totals averaging 9.69 over their last 35.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 54% of Tobol Kostanay matches.
  • Games involving Ordabasy Shymkent produce 2.81 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 63%.
  • Tobol Kostanay matches average 2.51 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.
  • Across their previous 10 meetings, these sides averaged 2.1 goals.
  • Head-to-head, the last 10 meetings with corner data averaged 10.1 corners.
  • On the goal line, our probabilities favour Under 2.75 (56%).

Ordabasy Shymkent — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-26 A L Kairat Almaty 1–2 2–2
2026-07-20 H W FC Elimai Semey 3–1 3–6
2026-07-15 H W FC Altai Semey 3–1 6–6
2026-07-11 A L FK Kaspyi Aktau 2–3 9–2
2026-07-05 H W FK Ulytau 1–0 3–3
2026-06-28 A W FK Ulytau 1–0 6–8
2026-06-20 H W FK Kaspyi Aktau 2–0 7–5
2026-06-14 A W FC Elimai Semey 3–1 5–8
2026-05-28 H W Kairat Almaty 2–1 2–1
2026-05-23 A W Tobol Kostanay 3–0 5–6

Tobol Kostanay — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-30 H D FK Panevezys 1–1 7–4
2026-07-26 H W FK Atyrau 1–0 4–2
2026-07-23 A D FK Panevezys 1–1 9–6
2026-07-18 A D FK Kyzylzhar 1–1 4–4
2026-07-12 H W Okzhetpes Kokshetau 3–1 6–3
2026-07-04 A L FC Altai Semey 0–1 2–10
2026-06-28 H W FC Altai Semey 3–1 4–4
2026-06-21 A L Okzhetpes Kokshetau 1–2 5–5
2026-06-13 H W FK Kyzylzhar 2–0 10–4
2026-05-28 A D FK Atyrau 1–1 3–1

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Ordabasy Shymkent vs Tobol Kostanay?
Our model gives Ordabasy Shymkent a 59% chance, the draw 25% and Tobol Kostanay 16%. The most likely score is 1-1.
How many corners are expected in Ordabasy Shymkent vs Tobol Kostanay?
The corner model projects 9.3 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 48% probability.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.