MathPredictions
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Uruguay Torneo Intermedio

Penarol vs Cerro Largo Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 1-0
Expected goals1.52 – 0.76
Avg goals2.28
Our pickHome
Penarol 54% Draw 28% Cerro Largo 17%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Home 54% 1.84 1.57
Double chance – Home or draw 83% 1.21 1.12
Goals 2.25 Under +6% Value 54% 1.86 2.00
Both teams to score – No 57% 1.75 1.67
Asian handicap -1 Away +6% Value 61% 1.63 1.78
Corners 9 Under +10% Value 62% 1.61 1.80
Correct score – 1-0 +72% Value 14% 6.96 12.00

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 1.57  ·  Draw 3.90  ·  Away 5.25
Goals 2.25 Over 1.80  ·  Under 2.00
Asian handicap -1 Home 2.03  ·  Away 1.78
Corners 9 Over 2.00  ·  Under 1.80

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Corner forecast

5.4 Penarol
8.2 Expected corners
2.8 Cerro Largo

Penarol corner stats · Cerro Largo corner stats

Corner line 9.00
Over 38% Under 62%

Match trends

  • Our model projects 8.2 corners in this match, with Penarol winning 5.4 of them.
  • Penarol win 5.07 corners per game, with match totals averaging 8.55 over their last 58.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 29% of Penarol matches.
  • Across 42 recent matches, Cerro Largo games produced 8.00 corners on average — 3.40 taken by Cerro Largo themselves.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 31% of Cerro Largo matches.
  • Games involving Penarol produce 2.31 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 48%.
  • Cerro Largo matches average 2.24 goals, with both teams scoring in 45% of them.
  • Across their previous 10 meetings, these sides averaged 2.1 goals.
  • Head-to-head, the last 10 meetings with corner data averaged 9.4 corners.
  • On the goal line, our probabilities favour Under 2.25 (54%).

Penarol — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-19 H W Boston River 3–0 4–5
2026-07-13 A D Racing Club de Montevideo 1–1 4–2
2026-06-08 A W Cerro 1–0 4–4
2026-06-02 H L Central Espanol 0–1 6–3
2026-05-28 H L Independiente Santa Fe 0–1 9–2
2026-05-25 A W Defensor Sporting 2–0 3–2
2026-05-22 H D Corinthians 1–1 3–5
2026-05-17 H W Liverpool Montevideo 2–1 2–2
2026-05-12 A W Cerro Largo 3–2 4–1
2026-05-08 A D Platense 1–1 3–4

Cerro Largo — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-26 A W Central Espanol 1–0 1–5
2026-07-14 H D Defensor Sporting 1–1 5–7
2026-06-09 A D Liverpool Montevideo 0–0 1–5
2026-05-30 H W Cerro 2–0 5–1
2026-05-24 H W Boston River 3–0 1–4
2026-05-18 A L Racing Club de Montevideo 0–1 1–4
2026-05-12 H L Penarol 2–3 1–4
2026-05-03 A W Club Atletico Progreso 1–0 3–5
2026-04-27 H L Racing Club de Montevideo 0–1 3–3
2026-04-21 A L Boston River 0–1 4–2

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Penarol vs Cerro Largo?
Our model gives Penarol a 54% chance, the draw 28% and Cerro Largo 17%. The most likely score is 1-0.
How many corners are expected in Penarol vs Cerro Largo?
The corner model projects 8.2 total corners. Over 9.00 corners is rated at 38% probability.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.