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Uruguay League Women

Penarol (W) vs Defensor Sporting (W) Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 1-0
Expected goals1.59 – 0.75
Avg goals2.34
Our pickHome
Penarol (W) 56% Draw 27% Defensor Sporting (W) 16%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Home 56% 1.78 1.30
Double chance – Home or draw 84% 1.20 1.02
Goals 2.5 Under 58% 1.71 1.88
Both teams to score – No 57% 1.76 –
Corners 9.5 Under 59% 1.70 –
Correct score – 1-0 14% 7.07 26.00

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 1.30  ·  Draw 4.75  ·  Away 7.50
Goals 3.25 Over 1.93  ·  Under 1.88

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Corner forecast

5.6 Penarol (W)
8.6 Expected corners
3.0 Defensor Sporting (W)

Penarol (W) corner stats · Defensor Sporting (W) corner stats

Corner line 9.50
Over 41% Under 59%

Match trends

  • The corner model expects around 8.6 corners here; Penarol (W) are forecast for 5.6.
  • Penarol (W) matches average 8.36 total corners (5.36 won per game) across their last 14 with corner data.
  • Penarol (W) games clear the 9.5 corner line 29% of the time.
  • Defensor Sporting (W) win 4.77 corners per game, with match totals averaging 8.92 over their last 13.
  • Defensor Sporting (W) games clear the 9.5 corner line 46% of the time.
  • Penarol (W) matches average 2.14 goals, with both teams scoring in 43% of them.
  • Games involving Defensor Sporting (W) produce 3.38 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 54%.
  • The last 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals per game.
  • Corners have averaged 8.3 across their last 8 direct meetings.
  • The model leans Under 2.50 goals at 58% probability.

Penarol (W) — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-27 A W Nacional De Football (W) 2–1 5–1
2026-07-10 A L Flamengo (W) 1–4 1–4
2026-06-15 A W Montevideo City Torque (W) 2–0 4–4
2026-06-08 H W Montevideo Wanderers (W) 1–0 8–3
2026-05-24 A W Liverpool Montevideo (W) 1–0 9–3
2026-05-17 A W Defensor Sporting (W) 1–0 5–4
2025-11-23 H W Defensor Sporting (W) 2–1 5–2
2025-11-16 A L Nacional De Football (W) 0–1 4–3
2025-11-03 H W Montevideo Wanderers (W) 1–0 9–2
2025-10-20 H D Gimnasia LP (W) 1–1 1–8

Defensor Sporting (W) — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-26 H W FC San Jacinto (W) 3–0 8–3
2026-06-29 H W Liverpool Montevideo (W) 3–1 6–3
2026-06-21 H L Nacional De Football (W) 0–8 2–8
2026-06-15 A W Montevideo Wanderers (W) 3–2 1–4
2026-06-07 H D Danubio (W) 0–0 7–3
2026-05-24 A W Montevideo City Torque (W) 2–0 4–2
2026-05-17 H L Penarol (W) 0–1 4–5
2025-11-23 A L Penarol (W) 1–2 2–5
2025-11-09 H D Liverpool Montevideo (W) 1–1 2–8
2025-09-22 A W Montevideo Wanderers (W) 4–0 6–3

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Penarol (W) vs Defensor Sporting (W)?
Our model gives Penarol (W) a 56% chance, the draw 27% and Defensor Sporting (W) 16%. The most likely score is 1-0.
How many corners are expected in Penarol (W) vs Defensor Sporting (W)?
The corner model projects 8.6 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 41% probability.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.