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Mexico Liga de Expansion

Piratas vs Atletico Morelia Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 1-1
Expected goals1.23 – 1.12
Avg goals2.35
Our pickHome
Piratas 38% Draw 31% Atletico Morelia 32%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Home 38% 2.66 2.50
Double chance – Home or away 69% 1.44 1.32
Goals 2.25 Under 52% 1.94 1.83
Both teams to score – No 51% 1.96 –
Asian handicap 0 Home 54% 1.85 1.80
Correct score – 1-1 14% 6.92 6.50

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 2.50  ·  Draw 3.25  ·  Away 2.80
Goals 2.25 Over 1.98  ·  Under 1.83
Asian handicap 0 Home 1.80  ·  Away 2.00

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Match trends

  • Atletico Morelia win 5.03 corners per game, with match totals averaging 9.31 over their last 36.
  • Atletico Morelia games clear the 9.5 corner line 44% of the time.
  • Atletico Morelia matches average 2.64 goals, with both teams scoring in 44% of them.
  • On the goal line, our probabilities favour Under 2.25 (52%).

Piratas — last 1 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-26 A D Jaiba Brava 0–0 4–5

Atletico Morelia — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-26 H W Club Atletico La Paz 4–2 0–0
2026-07-05 H D Cruz Azul 3–3 5–3
2026-04-26 H W Mineros de Zacatecas 2–0 12–3
2026-04-23 A L Mineros de Zacatecas 0–3 3–1
2026-04-20 A L Jaiba Brava 0–1 4–12
2026-04-12 H D Tlaxcala FC 0–0 6–4
2026-04-05 A L Universidad Guadalajara 0–2 6–5
2026-03-29 H W Irapuato 2–0 6–5
2026-03-23 A L Tapatio 1–2 7–1
2026-03-15 H W Tepatitlan de Morelos 3–2 3–5

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Piratas vs Atletico Morelia?
Our model gives Piratas a 38% chance, the draw 31% and Atletico Morelia 32%. The most likely score is 1-1.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.