MathPredictions
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Netherlands Super Cup

PSV vs AZ Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 2-1
Expected goals2.31 – 1.30
Avg goals3.61
Our pickHome
PSV 59% Draw 21% AZ 20%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Home 59% 1.69 1.53
Double chance – Home or draw 80% 1.25 1.12
Goals 3.5 Under 51% 1.95 1.85
Both teams to score – Yes 66% 1.51 1.44
Asian handicap -1 Away 52% 1.94 1.95
Correct score – 2-1 +59% Value 9% 10.66 17.00

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 1.53  ·  Draw 4.20  ·  Away 4.75
Goals 3.5 Over 1.95  ·  Under 1.85
Asian handicap -1 Home 1.85  ·  Away 1.95

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Match trends

  • PSV win 6.54 corners per game, with match totals averaging 11.02 over their last 50.
  • PSV games clear the 9.5 corner line 72% of the time.
  • Across 58 recent matches, AZ games produced 10.17 corners on average — 5.83 taken by AZ themselves.
  • AZ games clear the 9.5 corner line 53% of the time.
  • PSV matches average 4.16 goals, with both teams scoring in 78% of them.
  • Games involving AZ produce 3.19 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 57%.
  • The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.6 goals per game.
  • Corners have averaged 8.6 across their last 10 direct meetings.
  • The model leans Under 3.50 goals at 51% probability.

PSV — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-29 H W FC Eindhoven 3–0 6–3
2026-07-26 H L Villarreal 1–3 2–2
2026-07-04 H D Antwerp 1–1 7–3
2026-05-17 H W FC Twente 5–1 11–9
2026-05-10 A W Go Ahead Eagles 4–1 4–8
2026-05-03 A D Ajax 2–2 4–6
2026-04-24 H W PEC Zwolle 6–1 4–4
2026-04-12 A W Sparta Rotterdam 2–0 5–2
2026-04-04 H W FC Utrecht 4–3 8–3
2026-03-22 A L Telstar 1–3 12–1

AZ — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-25 H W Olympiacos 3–2 6–2
2026-07-19 A D Zulte-Waregem 1–1 18–1
2026-05-17 H D NAC 3–3 7–6
2026-05-10 A D Feyenoord 1–1 3–7
2026-05-03 H D FC Twente 2–2 4–3
2026-04-24 A D Go Ahead Eagles 0–0 10–5
2026-04-20 H W NEC 5–1 2–8
2026-04-17 H D Shakhtar Donetsk 2–2 3–3
2026-04-12 H W Heerenveen 3–0 6–6
2026-04-10 A L Shakhtar Donetsk 0–3 7–4

Match questions

Who is predicted to win PSV vs AZ?
Our model gives PSV a 59% chance, the draw 21% and AZ 20%. The most likely score is 2-1.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.