Mexico Liga MX
Puebla vs Chivas Guadalajara Prediction
Kickoff (UTC):
Predicted score
1-1
Expected goals1.13 – 1.42
Avg goals2.55
Our pickAway
Puebla 29%
Draw 29%
Chivas Guadalajara 42%
Markets
| Market | Line | Our pick | Probability | Fair odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | – | Away | 42% | 2.36 | 1.67 |
| Double chance | – | Draw or away | 71% | 1.41 | 1.19 |
| Goals | 2.75 | Under +12% Value | 60% | 1.68 | 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | – | Yes | 53% | 1.90 | 1.70 |
| Asian handicap | 0.75 | Home +25% Value | 65% | 1.55 | 2.00 |
| Corners | 10 | Over | 50% | 2.00 | 2.03 |
| Correct score | – | 1-1 | 14% | 7.25 | 7.50 |
Bookmaker odds
| Match result (1X2) | Home 4.75 · Draw 4.10 · Away 1.67 |
| Goals 2.75 | Over 1.83 · Under 1.98 |
| Asian handicap 0.75 | Home 2.00 · Away 1.80 |
| Corners 10 | Over 2.03 · Under 1.78 |
Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.
Corner forecast
10.0
Expected corners
Puebla corner stats · Chivas Guadalajara corner stats
Corner line 10.00
Over 50%
Under 50%
Match trends
- Puebla matches average 10.43 total corners (4.49 won per game) across their last 35 with corner data.
- Puebla games clear the 9.5 corner line 60% of the time.
- Chivas Guadalajara win 6.16 corners per game, with match totals averaging 9.13 over their last 45.
- Chivas Guadalajara games clear the 9.5 corner line 42% of the time.
- Puebla matches average 2.86 goals, with both teams scoring in 51% of them.
- Games involving Chivas Guadalajara produce 2.76 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 47%.
- The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals per game.
- Corners have averaged 8.2 across their last 10 direct meetings.
- The model leans Under 2.75 goals at 60% probability.
Puebla — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | A | L Cruz Azul | 1–2 | 3–7 |
| 2026-07-18 | A | W Juarez FC | 1–0 | 7–5 |
| 2026-04-25 | H | L Queretaro | 1–2 | 3–12 |
| 2026-04-22 | A | L Monterrey | 1–2 | 4–3 |
| 2026-04-19 | A | L Chivas Guadalajara | 0–5 | 0–9 |
| 2026-04-11 | H | L Leon | 0–1 | 7–8 |
| 2026-04-04 | H | D Juarez FC | 1–1 | 8–9 |
| 2026-03-23 | A | L Santos Laguna | 1–2 | 4–11 |
| 2026-03-14 | H | D Necaxa | 0–0 | 6–5 |
| 2026-03-05 | H | W Tigres UANL | 3–1 | 2–7 |
Chivas Guadalajara — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | H | W Juarez FC | 1–0 | 19–2 |
| 2026-07-19 | H | L Toluca | 0–2 | 9–2 |
| 2026-07-04 | A | D Correcaminos | 0–0 | 7–3 |
| 2026-05-17 | H | L Cruz Azul | 1–2 | 8–7 |
| 2026-05-14 | A | D Cruz Azul | 2–2 | 1–6 |
| 2026-05-10 | H | W Tigres UANL | 2–0 | 13–1 |
| 2026-05-03 | A | L Tigres UANL | 1–3 | 4–4 |
| 2026-04-26 | H | D Tijuana | 0–0 | 8–2 |
| 2026-04-23 | A | D Necaxa | 0–0 | 4–1 |
| 2026-04-19 | H | W Puebla | 5–0 | 9–0 |
Match questions
- Who is predicted to win Puebla vs Chivas Guadalajara?
- Our model gives Puebla a 29% chance, the draw 29% and Chivas Guadalajara 42%. The most likely score is 1-1.
- How many corners are expected in Puebla vs Chivas Guadalajara?
- The corner model projects 10.0 total corners. Over 10.00 corners is rated at 50% probability.
- How are these predictions calculated?
- Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.