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Elite Club Friendlies

Real Madrid vs Fiorentina Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 2-1
Expected goals2.48 – 1.19
Avg goals3.67
Our pickHome
Real Madrid 65% Draw 19% Fiorentina 16%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Home 65% 1.54 1.38
Double chance – Home or draw 84% 1.19 1.10
Goals 3.5 Under 50% 2.00 1.90
Both teams to score – Yes 65% 1.55 1.57
Asian handicap -1.5 Away 56% 1.79 1.80
Correct score – 2-1 +58% Value 9% 10.73 17.00

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 1.38  ·  Draw 5.50  ·  Away 4.75
Goals 3.5 Over 1.90  ·  Under 1.90
Asian handicap -1.5 Home 2.00  ·  Away 1.80

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Match trends

  • Real Madrid matches average 10.54 total corners (6.25 won per game) across their last 57 with corner data.
  • Real Madrid games clear the 9.5 corner line 60% of the time.
  • Fiorentina win 4.44 corners per game, with match totals averaging 8.51 over their last 59.
  • Fiorentina games clear the 9.5 corner line 39% of the time.
  • Real Madrid matches average 3.25 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.
  • Games involving Fiorentina produce 2.46 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 53%.
  • The model leans Under 3.50 goals at 50% probability.

Real Madrid — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-05-24 H W Athletic Club 4–2 2–1
2026-05-18 A W Sevilla 1–0 4–4
2026-05-15 H W Real Oviedo 2–0 4–5
2026-05-11 A L Barcelona 0–2 8–4
2026-05-04 A W Espanyol 2–0 6–5
2026-04-25 A D Real Betis 1–1 6–7
2026-04-22 H W CD Alaves 2–1 9–6
2026-04-16 A L Bayern Munich 3–4 2–9
2026-04-11 H D Girona 1–1 10–1
2026-04-08 H L Bayern Munich 1–2 8–11

Fiorentina — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-30 A W Watford 1–0 5–5
2026-07-25 A L QPR 2–3 2–4
2026-07-23 H W Gubbio 1–0 12–0
2026-05-23 H D Atalanta 1–1 3–3
2026-05-17 A W Juventus 2–0 2–6
2026-05-10 H D Genoa 0–0 4–3
2026-05-05 A L Roma 0–4 5–4
2026-04-26 H D Sassuolo 0–0 7–4
2026-04-21 A D Lecce 1–1 2–5
2026-04-17 H W Crystal Palace 2–1 6–1

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Real Madrid vs Fiorentina?
Our model gives Real Madrid a 65% chance, the draw 19% and Fiorentina 16%. The most likely score is 2-1.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.