MathPredictions
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USA USL Championship

Sacramento Republic vs Sporting JAX Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 2-0
Expected goals2.25 – 0.78
Avg goals3.03
Our pickHome
Sacramento Republic 70% Draw 20% Sporting JAX 11%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Home 70% 1.43 1.30
Double chance – Home or draw 90% 1.12 1.02
Goals 2.5 Over 58% 1.72 1.90
Both teams to score – No 51% 1.96 1.80
Corners 9.5 Under 60% 1.68 1.90
Correct score – 2-0 12% 8.13 41.00

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 1.30  ·  Draw 4.75  ·  Away 7.00
Goals 3 Over 1.90  ·  Under 1.90
Corners 9 Over 1.90  ·  Under 1.90

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Corner forecast

5.7 Sacramento Republic
8.8 Expected corners
3.0 Sporting JAX

Sacramento Republic corner stats · Sporting JAX corner stats

Corner line 9.50
Over 40% Under 60%

Match trends

  • Our model projects 8.8 corners in this match, with Sacramento Republic winning 5.7 of them.
  • Sacramento Republic win 5.40 corners per game, with match totals averaging 9.33 over their last 40.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 45% of Sacramento Republic matches.
  • Across 21 recent matches, Sporting JAX games produced 8.67 corners on average — 3.76 taken by Sporting JAX themselves.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 38% of Sporting JAX matches.
  • Games involving Sacramento Republic produce 2.13 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 40%.
  • Sporting JAX matches average 3.43 goals, with both teams scoring in 57% of them.
  • On the goal line, our probabilities favour Over 2.50 (58%).

Sacramento Republic — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-26 A W Oakland Roots 3–1 7–3
2026-07-19 A D Charleston Battery 1–1 5–6
2026-07-12 A L AC Boise 0–2 8–1
2026-07-09 H W Rhode Island FC 2–1 7–3
2026-06-21 H L New Mexico United 0–1 5–3
2026-06-14 A W Colorado Switchbacks FC 1–0 1–4
2026-06-07 H D Monterey Bay FC 1–1 6–6
2026-05-31 A L Phoenix Rising FC 0–2 5–5
2026-05-24 A L San Antonio FC 1–2 7–0
2026-05-17 A W Oakland Roots 1–0 2–1

Sporting JAX — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-26 A L El Paso Locomotive FC 0–2 5–8
2026-07-19 H D Brooklyn FC 2–2 5–3
2026-07-16 H W Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2–1 1–2
2026-07-04 A D Loudoun United FC 2–2 3–3
2026-06-21 H L Charleston Battery 2–5 3–2
2026-06-14 H L Detroit City FC 2–6 5–3
2026-06-11 A L Monterey Bay FC 1–2 4–5
2026-06-07 H L Tampa Bay Rowdies 0–2 3–4
2026-05-28 H D San Antonio FC 4–4 4–5
2026-05-18 A D FC Naples 1–1 6–7

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Sacramento Republic vs Sporting JAX?
Our model gives Sacramento Republic a 70% chance, the draw 20% and Sporting JAX 11%. The most likely score is 2-0.
How many corners are expected in Sacramento Republic vs Sporting JAX?
The corner model projects 8.8 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 40% probability.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.