Bulgaria First League
Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia Prediction
Kickoff (UTC):
Predicted score
1-113%1-011%2-19%
Expected goals1.54 – 1.04
Avg goals2.57
Our pickHome
Spartak Varna 48%
Draw 27%
Septemvri Sofia 25%
Markets
| Market | Line | Our pick | Probability | Fair odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | – | Home | 48% | 2.07 | 1.85 |
| Double chance | – | Home or draw | 75% | 1.33 | 1.21 |
| Goals | 2.25 | Over | 54% | 1.84 | 1.83 |
| Both teams to score | – | Yes | 51% | 1.96 | 1.91 |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | Away | 52% | 1.94 | 1.95 |
| Corners | 9.5 | Under | 58% | 1.73 | – |
| Correct score | – | 1-1 | 13% | 7.92 | 6.50 |
Bookmaker odds
| Match result (1X2) | Home 1.85 · Draw 3.50 · Away 4.20 |
| Goals 2.25 | Over 1.83 · Under 1.98 |
| Asian handicap -0.5 | Home 1.85 · Away 1.95 |
Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.
Corner forecast
4.4
Spartak Varna
8.8
Expected corners
4.5
Septemvri Sofia
Spartak Varna corner stats · Septemvri Sofia corner stats
Corner line 9.50
Over 42%
Under 58%
Match trends
- The corner model expects around 8.8 corners here; Spartak Varna are forecast for 4.4.
- Spartak Varna win 3.97 corners per game, with match totals averaging 10.05 over their last 39.
- Spartak Varna games clear the 9.5 corner line 51% of the time.
- Across 41 recent matches, Septemvri Sofia games produced 8.00 corners on average — 3.51 taken by Septemvri Sofia themselves.
- Septemvri Sofia games clear the 9.5 corner line 29% of the time.
- Spartak Varna matches average 2.46 goals, with both teams scoring in 46% of them.
- Games involving Septemvri Sofia produce 2.44 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 46%.
- The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals per game.
- Corners have averaged 10.5 across their last 10 direct meetings.
- The model leans Over 2.25 goals at 54% probability.
Spartak Varna — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | A | L Botev Plovdiv | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| 2026-08-04 | H | W Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1–0 | 1–4 |
| 2026-07-27 | A | W Cherno More Varna | 3–0 | 1–9 |
| 2026-07-18 | H | D CSKA 1948 Sofia | 2–2 | 5–5 |
| 2026-07-05 | A | L Botev Plovdiv | 0–1 | 3–1 |
| 2026-06-27 | H | D Dunav Ruse | 0–0 | 10–5 |
| 2026-05-22 | H | W Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 3–0 | 6–7 |
| 2026-05-14 | A | L Septemvri Sofia | 0–1 | 7–5 |
| 2026-05-10 | H | W Slavia Sofia | 2–1 | 8–4 |
| 2026-05-07 | H | D Dobrudzha 1919 Dobrich | 1–1 | 3–6 |
Septemvri Sofia — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | H | L CSKA Sofia | 0–3 | 2–3 |
| 2026-08-02 | A | L Levski Sofia | 0–3 | 0–7 |
| 2026-07-27 | A | L Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1–2 | 7–4 |
| 2026-07-19 | H | D Arda Kardzhali | 1–1 | 5–2 |
| 2026-07-10 | A | L Ludogorets Razgrad | 0–1 | 1–0 |
| 2026-05-28 | H | W Yantra Gabrovo | 2–1 | 9–2 |
| 2026-05-22 | H | D Dobrudzha 1919 Dobrich | 1–1 | 2–4 |
| 2026-05-19 | A | W Beroe | 1–0 | 2–5 |
| 2026-05-14 | H | W Spartak Varna | 1–0 | 5–7 |
| 2026-05-10 | A | D Botev Vratsa | 1–1 | 4–3 |
Match questions
- Who is predicted to win Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
- Our model gives Spartak Varna a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Septemvri Sofia 25%. The most likely score is 1-1.
- How many corners are expected in Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
- The corner model projects 8.8 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 42% probability.
- How are these predictions calculated?
- Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.