MathPredictions
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Republic of Ireland Premier Division

St Patrick's Athletic vs Derry City Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 1-1
Expected goals1.42 – 0.86
Avg goals2.28
Our pickHome
St Patrick's Athletic 49% Draw 30% Derry City 22%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Home 49% 2.05 1.70
Double chance – Home or draw 78% 1.28 1.14
Goals 2.25 Under +6% Value 54% 1.86 2.00
Both teams to score – No 55% 1.82 1.80
Asian handicap -0.75 Away +6% Value 58% 1.72 1.83
Corners 9.5 Over 53% 1.89 1.90
Correct score – 1-1 14% 7.27 7.00

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 1.70  ·  Draw 3.50  ·  Away 4.50
Goals 2.25 Over 1.80  ·  Under 2.00
Asian handicap -0.75 Home 1.98  ·  Away 1.83
Corners 9.5 Over 1.90  ·  Under 1.90

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Corner forecast

5.2 St Patrick's Athletic
9.8 Expected corners
4.6 Derry City

St Patrick's Athletic corner stats · Derry City corner stats

Corner line 9.50
Over 53% Under 47%

Match trends

  • Our model projects 9.8 corners in this match, with St Patrick's Athletic winning 5.2 of them.
  • St Patrick's Athletic matches average 10.22 total corners (6.24 won per game) across their last 51 with corner data.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 59% of St Patrick's Athletic matches.
  • Derry City win 5.68 corners per game, with match totals averaging 10.20 over their last 44.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 55% of Derry City matches.
  • Games involving St Patrick's Athletic produce 2.61 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 41%.
  • Derry City matches average 2.52 goals, with both teams scoring in 61% of them.
  • Across their previous 10 meetings, these sides averaged 1.7 goals.
  • Head-to-head, the last 10 meetings with corner data averaged 10.1 corners.
  • On the goal line, our probabilities favour Under 2.25 (54%).

St Patrick's Athletic — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-25 H D Dundalk 1–1 7–3
2026-07-18 H W Wexford FC 2–1 9–0
2026-07-15 H L Doncaster 2–4 4–3
2026-07-11 A D Waterford FC 1–1 5–7
2026-07-04 H W Galway United 3–0 8–3
2026-07-01 A L Bray Wanderers 1–2 4–2
2026-06-27 A L Bohemians Dublin 0–2 6–4
2026-06-20 H W Sligo Rovers 2–0 14–7
2026-06-13 H W Drogheda United 2–0 12–3
2026-05-30 A L Shamrock Rovers 0–1 6–4

Derry City — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-31 H L HNK Rijeka 0–1 1–5
2026-07-24 A L HNK Rijeka 0–1 4–13
2026-07-19 H W Tolka Rovers 3–0 11–1
2026-07-17 H L CSKA Sofia 1–2 11–6
2026-07-10 A L CSKA Sofia 2–3 5–6
2026-07-04 H L Waterford FC 2–4 5–7
2026-06-27 H W Drogheda United 2–0 7–5
2026-06-23 A D Shamrock Rovers 1–1 2–6
2026-06-20 A L Galway United 1–2 4–1
2026-06-13 H W Bohemians Dublin 4–1 6–6

Match questions

Who is predicted to win St Patrick's Athletic vs Derry City?
Our model gives St Patrick's Athletic a 49% chance, the draw 30% and Derry City 22%. The most likely score is 1-1.
How many corners are expected in St Patrick's Athletic vs Derry City?
The corner model projects 9.8 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 53% probability.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.