USA USL Championship
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City FC Prediction
Kickoff (UTC):
Predicted score
1-1
Expected goals1.58 – 1.31
Avg goals2.90
Our pickHome
Tampa Bay Rowdies 43%
Draw 27%
Louisville City FC 31%
Markets
| Market | Line | Our pick | Probability | Fair odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | – | Home | 43% | 2.35 | 1.85 |
| Double chance | – | Home or away | 73% | 1.37 | 1.19 |
| Goals | 2.75 | Under | 50% | 1.99 | 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | – | Yes | 59% | 1.69 | 1.67 |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | Away +6% Value | 57% | 1.74 | 1.85 |
| Corners | 9.5 | Over | 53% | 1.90 | – |
| Correct score | – | 1-1 | 13% | 7.92 | 7.00 |
Bookmaker odds
| Match result (1X2) | Home 1.85 · Draw 3.50 · Away 3.30 |
| Goals 2.75 | Over 1.85 · Under 1.95 |
| Asian handicap -0.5 | Home 1.95 · Away 1.85 |
Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.
Corner forecast
4.5
Tampa Bay Rowdies
9.7
Expected corners
5.2
Louisville City FC
Tampa Bay Rowdies corner stats · Louisville City FC corner stats
Corner line 9.50
Over 53%
Under 47%
Match trends
- Our model projects 9.7 corners in this match, with Tampa Bay Rowdies winning 4.5 of them.
- Across 35 recent matches, Tampa Bay Rowdies games produced 8.83 corners on average — 4.91 taken by Tampa Bay Rowdies themselves.
- Over 9.5 corners has landed in 37% of Tampa Bay Rowdies matches.
- Louisville City FC matches average 10.59 total corners (7.15 won per game) across their last 39 with corner data.
- Over 9.5 corners has landed in 59% of Louisville City FC matches.
- Games involving Tampa Bay Rowdies produce 3.00 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 54%.
- Louisville City FC matches average 2.87 goals, with both teams scoring in 51% of them.
- Across their previous 10 meetings, these sides averaged 2.6 goals.
- Head-to-head, the last 10 meetings with corner data averaged 9.2 corners.
- On the goal line, our probabilities favour Under 2.75 (50%).
Tampa Bay Rowdies — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | A | W Miami FC | 3–2 | 3–3 |
| 2026-07-19 | A | D Loudoun United FC | 1–1 | 5–5 |
| 2026-07-12 | H | W FC Naples | 2–0 | 3–2 |
| 2026-07-05 | H | L Lexington SC | 1–4 | 12–2 |
| 2026-06-21 | A | W Brooklyn FC | 2–0 | 3–5 |
| 2026-06-14 | H | L Hartford Athletic | 0–1 | 15–1 |
| 2026-06-11 | H | D Charleston Battery | 2–2 | 5–3 |
| 2026-06-07 | A | W Sporting JAX | 2–0 | 4–3 |
| 2026-05-31 | A | W Louisville City FC | 2–0 | 5–3 |
| 2026-05-24 | H | W Phoenix Rising FC | 3–0 | 3–3 |
Louisville City FC — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | H | W Birmingham Legion FC | 2–1 | 10–1 |
| 2026-07-19 | A | L Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1–3 | 7–2 |
| 2026-07-12 | H | W Lexington SC | 4–2 | 3–5 |
| 2026-07-05 | H | W Hartford Athletic | 1–0 | 7–1 |
| 2026-06-21 | A | D Detroit City FC | 0–0 | 4–6 |
| 2026-06-14 | H | D Brooklyn FC | 2–2 | 14–2 |
| 2026-06-11 | A | W Phoenix Rising FC | 2–0 | 4–7 |
| 2026-06-04 | A | D Birmingham Legion FC | 1–1 | 6–2 |
| 2026-05-31 | H | L Tampa Bay Rowdies | 0–2 | 3–5 |
| 2026-05-24 | A | L Miami FC | 3–4 | 9–0 |
Match questions
- Who is predicted to win Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City FC?
- Our model gives Tampa Bay Rowdies a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Louisville City FC 31%. The most likely score is 1-1.
- How many corners are expected in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City FC?
- The corner model projects 9.7 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 53% probability.
- How are these predictions calculated?
- Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.