Mexico Liga de Expansion
Tapatio vs Jaiba Brava Prediction
Kickoff (UTC):
Predicted score
1-1
Expected goals1.28 – 1.02
Avg goals2.30
Our pickHome
Tapatio 41%
Draw 31%
Jaiba Brava 28%
Markets
| Market | Line | Our pick | Probability | Fair odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | – | Home | 41% | 2.44 | 2.25 |
| Double chance | – | Home or draw | 72% | 1.40 | 1.34 |
| Goals | 2.25 | Under +6% Value | 53% | 1.89 | 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | – | No | 52% | 1.91 | – |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | Away | 52% | 1.94 | 1.85 |
| Corners | 9.5 | Over | 55% | 1.83 | – |
| Correct score | – | 1-1 | 14% | 6.95 | 6.50 |
Bookmaker odds
| Match result (1X2) | Home 2.25 · Draw 3.30 · Away 3.20 |
| Goals 2.25 | Over 1.78 · Under 2.03 |
| Asian handicap -0.25 | Home 1.95 · Away 1.85 |
Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.
Corner forecast
4.8
Tapatio
9.9
Expected corners
5.0
Jaiba Brava
Tapatio corner stats · Jaiba Brava corner stats
Corner line 9.50
Over 55%
Under 45%
Match trends
- The corner model expects around 9.9 corners here; Tapatio are forecast for 4.8.
- Across 31 recent matches, Tapatio games produced 10.23 corners on average — 4.74 taken by Tapatio themselves.
- Tapatio games clear the 9.5 corner line 48% of the time.
- Jaiba Brava matches average 9.47 total corners (5.31 won per game) across their last 45 with corner data.
- Jaiba Brava games clear the 9.5 corner line 49% of the time.
- Tapatio matches average 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 65% of them.
- Games involving Jaiba Brava produce 2.22 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 53%.
- The last 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.7 goals per game.
- Corners have averaged 9.3 across their last 3 direct meetings.
- The model leans Under 2.25 goals at 53% probability.
Tapatio — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | H | D Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 0–0 | 5–10 |
| 2026-04-27 | A | L Cancun FC | 0–1 | 11–3 |
| 2026-04-24 | H | D Cancun FC | 1–1 | 7–2 |
| 2026-04-18 | A | L Dorados | 1–3 | 9–3 |
| 2026-04-12 | H | L Irapuato | 1–2 | 2–2 |
| 2026-04-08 | H | W Tlaxcala FC | 3–0 | 1–4 |
| 2026-03-30 | A | L Mineros de Zacatecas | 1–2 | 5–7 |
| 2026-03-23 | H | W Atletico Morelia | 2–1 | 1–7 |
| 2026-03-14 | A | L Oaxaca | 3–4 | 5–3 |
| 2026-03-07 | H | L Cancun FC | 1–2 | 10–2 |
Jaiba Brava — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | H | D Piratas | 0–0 | 5–4 |
| 2026-07-05 | H | L Club America | 0–2 | 0–7 |
| 2026-05-31 | H | W Tepatitlan de Morelos | 2–0 | 3–6 |
| 2026-05-24 | A | L Tepatitlan de Morelos | 1–3 | 1–8 |
| 2026-05-17 | A | L Tepatitlan de Morelos | 0–1 | 7–3 |
| 2026-05-10 | H | D Tepatitlan de Morelos | 0–0 | 4–7 |
| 2026-05-04 | A | D Cancun FC | 1–1 | 3–13 |
| 2026-05-01 | H | W Cancun FC | 2–1 | 5–0 |
| 2026-04-26 | A | W Club Atletico La Paz | 2–1 | 2–7 |
| 2026-04-23 | H | W Club Atletico La Paz | 2–0 | 10–2 |
Match questions
- Who is predicted to win Tapatio vs Jaiba Brava?
- Our model gives Tapatio a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Jaiba Brava 28%. The most likely score is 1-1.
- How many corners are expected in Tapatio vs Jaiba Brava?
- The corner model projects 9.9 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 55% probability.
- How are these predictions calculated?
- Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.