Wales Championship South
Treowen Stars vs Pontypridd Utd Prediction
Kickoff (UTC):
Predicted score
1-1
Expected goals1.62 – 1.68
Avg goals3.30
Our pickAway
Treowen Stars 36%
Draw 25%
Pontypridd Utd 39%
Markets
| Market | Line | Our pick | Probability | Fair odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | – | Away | 39% | 2.59 | 1.95 |
| Double chance | – | Home or away | 75% | 1.33 | 1.16 |
| Goals | 2.5 | Over | 64% | 1.56 | 1.93 |
| Both teams to score | – | Yes | 66% | 1.51 | – |
| Corners | 9.5 | Under | 52% | 1.94 | – |
| Correct score | – | 1-1 | 11% | 9.05 | 8.50 |
Bookmaker odds
| Match result (1X2) | Home 2.88 · Draw 3.90 · Away 1.95 |
| Goals 3 | Over 1.93 · Under 1.88 |
Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.
Corner forecast
4.0
Treowen Stars
9.4
Expected corners
5.4
Pontypridd Utd
Treowen Stars corner stats · Pontypridd Utd corner stats
Corner line 9.50
Over 48%
Under 52%
Match trends
- The corner model expects around 9.4 corners here; Treowen Stars are forecast for 4.
- Treowen Stars win 3.62 corners per game, with match totals averaging 9.83 over their last 29.
- Treowen Stars games clear the 9.5 corner line 59% of the time.
- Across 33 recent matches, Pontypridd Utd games produced 9.61 corners on average — 5.33 taken by Pontypridd Utd themselves.
- Pontypridd Utd games clear the 9.5 corner line 39% of the time.
- Treowen Stars matches average 3.79 goals, with both teams scoring in 69% of them.
- Games involving Pontypridd Utd produce 3.24 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 52%.
- The last 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.3 goals per game.
- Corners have averaged 9.3 across their last 3 direct meetings.
- The model leans Over 2.50 goals at 64% probability.
Treowen Stars — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | H | W Carmarthen | 4–1 | 4–8 |
| 2026-04-04 | A | L Trefelin BGC | 0–6 | 2–14 |
| 2026-03-28 | H | L Ammanford AFC | 1–5 | 4–0 |
| 2026-03-24 | H | L Afan Lido | 0–1 | 8–2 |
| 2026-03-21 | A | W Newport City | 3–2 | 5–5 |
| 2026-03-18 | H | W Baglan Dragons | 4–1 | 6–6 |
| 2026-03-14 | H | D Pontypridd Utd | 2–2 | 5–3 |
| 2026-03-11 | A | L Caerau Ely | 0–3 | 1–4 |
| 2026-03-07 | H | D Cambrian United | 2–2 | 4–2 |
| 2026-03-04 | A | L Llantwit Major | 2–3 | 3–9 |
Pontypridd Utd — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | H | D Caerau Ely | 0–0 | 5–6 |
| 2026-04-11 | A | D Cardiff Draconians | 2–2 | 2–4 |
| 2026-04-04 | A | W Carmarthen | 1–0 | 2–6 |
| 2026-03-28 | H | L Trefelin BGC | 1–3 | 4–11 |
| 2026-03-21 | A | L Trethomas Bluebirds | 2–4 | 4–5 |
| 2026-03-18 | A | W Cwmbran Celtic | 5–2 | 2–7 |
| 2026-03-14 | A | D Treowen Stars | 2–2 | 3–5 |
| 2026-03-07 | H | L Llantwit Major | 0–4 | 5–3 |
| 2026-02-21 | H | W Baglan Dragons | 2–0 | 8–5 |
| 2026-02-14 | A | W Ynyshir Albions | 3–1 | 6–3 |
Match questions
- Who is predicted to win Treowen Stars vs Pontypridd Utd?
- Our model gives Treowen Stars a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Pontypridd Utd 39%. The most likely score is 1-1.
- How many corners are expected in Treowen Stars vs Pontypridd Utd?
- The corner model projects 9.4 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 48% probability.
- How are these predictions calculated?
- Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.