MathPredictions
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Wales Championship South

Trethomas Bluebirds vs Baglan Dragons Prediction

Kickoff (UTC):

Predicted score 1-1
Expected goals1.85 – 1.17
Avg goals3.02
Our pickHome
Trethomas Bluebirds 52% Draw 25% Baglan Dragons 23%

Markets

MarketLineOur pickProbabilityFair oddsOdds
Match result (1X2) – Home 52% 1.91 1.70
Double chance – Home or draw 77% 1.30 1.18
Goals 3 Under 54% 1.85 1.90
Both teams to score – Yes 59% 1.69 –
Asian handicap -0.75 Away 53% 1.87 1.83
Corners 9.5 Over 56% 1.79 –
Correct score – 1-1 12% 8.61 8.00

Bookmaker odds

Match result (1X2) Home 1.70  ·  Draw 3.90  ·  Away 3.70
Goals 3 Over 1.90  ·  Under 1.90
Asian handicap -0.75 Home 1.98  ·  Away 1.83

Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.

Corner forecast

6.1 Trethomas Bluebirds
10.0 Expected corners
3.9 Baglan Dragons

Trethomas Bluebirds corner stats · Baglan Dragons corner stats

Corner line 9.50
Over 56% Under 44%

Match trends

  • Our model projects 10 corners in this match, with Trethomas Bluebirds winning 6.1 of them.
  • Trethomas Bluebirds win 4.84 corners per game, with match totals averaging 10.16 over their last 31.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 48% of Trethomas Bluebirds matches.
  • Across 27 recent matches, Baglan Dragons games produced 10.00 corners on average — 4.00 taken by Baglan Dragons themselves.
  • Over 9.5 corners has landed in 52% of Baglan Dragons matches.
  • Games involving Trethomas Bluebirds produce 3.77 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 74%.
  • Baglan Dragons matches average 2.63 goals, with both teams scoring in 48% of them.
  • Across their previous 5 meetings, these sides averaged 2.4 goals.
  • Head-to-head, the last 5 meetings with corner data averaged 9.6 corners.
  • On the goal line, our probabilities favour Under 3.00 (54%).

Trethomas Bluebirds — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-07-15 A L Barry Town 1–5 2–8
2026-04-18 A D Baglan Dragons 1–1 6–4
2026-04-04 H D Cardiff Draconians 4–4 4–3
2026-03-28 A D Ynyshir Albions 2–2 9–6
2026-03-21 H W Pontypridd Utd 4–2 5–4
2026-03-14 A L Aberystwyth 0–3 6–1
2026-03-10 H W Newport City 1–0 7–13
2026-03-07 H L Carmarthen 4–5 2–6
2026-03-01 A L Cambrian United 2–4 4–4
2026-02-21 A L Afan Lido 0–1 5–5

Baglan Dragons — last 10 matches

DateH/AOpponentScoreCorners
2026-04-18 H D Trethomas Bluebirds 1–1 4–6
2026-04-04 A L Cambrian United 0–2 1–9
2026-03-28 H L Carmarthen 0–7 3–8
2026-03-25 H D Cwmbran Celtic 0–0 0–4
2026-03-21 A L Ammanford AFC 0–1 6–6
2026-03-18 A L Treowen Stars 1–4 6–6
2026-03-14 H L Caerau Ely 0–5 2–2
2026-03-07 A W Newport City 2–1 3–15
2026-02-21 A L Pontypridd Utd 0–2 5–8
2026-02-18 A L Trefelin BGC 0–3 5–10

Match questions

Who is predicted to win Trethomas Bluebirds vs Baglan Dragons?
Our model gives Trethomas Bluebirds a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Baglan Dragons 23%. The most likely score is 1-1.
How many corners are expected in Trethomas Bluebirds vs Baglan Dragons?
The corner model projects 10.0 total corners. Over 9.50 corners is rated at 56% probability.
How are these predictions calculated?
Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.