Colombia Primera B
Union Magdalena vs Orsomarso Prediction
Kickoff (UTC):
Predicted score
1-0
Expected goals1.50 – 0.70
Avg goals2.19
Our pickHome
Union Magdalena 55%
Draw 29%
Orsomarso 16%
Markets
| Market | Line | Our pick | Probability | Fair odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | – | Home | 55% | 1.81 | 1.48 |
| Double chance | – | Home or draw | 84% | 1.19 | 1.09 |
| Goals | 2.25 | Under +9% Value | 56% | 1.77 | 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | – | No | 60% | 1.67 | – |
| Asian handicap | -1 | Away +5% Value | 60% | 1.66 | 1.90 |
| Corners | 8 | Over | 53% | 1.87 | 1.95 |
| Correct score | – | 1-0 +102% Value | 16% | 6.42 | 15.00 |
Bookmaker odds
| Match result (1X2) | Home 1.48 · Draw 4.10 · Away 6.50 |
| Goals 2.25 | Over 1.85 · Under 1.95 |
| Asian handicap -1 | Home 1.90 · Away 1.90 |
| Corners 8 | Over 1.95 · Under 1.85 |
Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.
Corner forecast
4.9
Union Magdalena
8.2
Expected corners
3.4
Orsomarso
Union Magdalena corner stats · Orsomarso corner stats
Corner line 8.00
Over 53%
Under 47%
Match trends
- The corner model expects around 8.2 corners here; Union Magdalena are forecast for 4.9.
- Union Magdalena matches average 9.03 total corners (4.33 won per game) across their last 39 with corner data.
- Union Magdalena games clear the 9.5 corner line 44% of the time.
- Orsomarso win 4.52 corners per game, with match totals averaging 9.18 over their last 33.
- Orsomarso games clear the 9.5 corner line 42% of the time.
- Union Magdalena matches average 2.62 goals, with both teams scoring in 54% of them.
- Games involving Orsomarso produce 2.03 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 39%.
- The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals per game.
- Corners have averaged 8.1 across their last 10 direct meetings.
- The model leans Under 2.25 goals at 56% probability.
Union Magdalena — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | A | L Bogota FC | 0–1 | 4–2 |
| 2026-05-22 | H | D Bogota FC | 0–0 | 4–2 |
| 2026-05-18 | A | D Barranquilla FC | 1–1 | 6–2 |
| 2026-05-13 | H | W Real Cartagena | 3–0 | 6–1 |
| 2026-05-09 | A | L Real Cartagena | 1–2 | 4–2 |
| 2026-05-05 | H | W Barranquilla FC | 2–0 | 6–5 |
| 2026-04-28 | A | D Bogota FC | 1–1 | 3–4 |
| 2026-04-19 | A | W Atletico Cali FC | 3–1 | 3–5 |
| 2026-04-14 | H | L Internacional FC de Palmira | 0–2 | 5–3 |
| 2026-04-10 | H | W Envigado FC | 4–2 | 10–6 |
Orsomarso — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | H | W Barranquilla FC | 1–0 | 3–1 |
| 2026-05-21 | A | D Fortaleza CEIF | 1–1 | 3–13 |
| 2026-05-16 | H | D Independiente Medellin | 1–1 | 10–2 |
| 2026-05-13 | A | L Itagui Leones | 0–2 | 6–7 |
| 2026-05-10 | H | D Cucuta Deportivo | 1–1 | 11–3 |
| 2026-04-19 | H | D Itagui Leones | 0–0 | 7–1 |
| 2026-04-14 | A | L Bogota FC | 0–2 | 5–1 |
| 2026-03-31 | H | L Internacional FC de Palmira | 1–2 | 6–2 |
| 2026-03-27 | A | D Deportes Quindio | 2–2 | 2–10 |
| 2026-03-22 | H | W Independiente Yumbo | 2–0 | 2–4 |
Match questions
- Who is predicted to win Union Magdalena vs Orsomarso?
- Our model gives Union Magdalena a 55% chance, the draw 29% and Orsomarso 16%. The most likely score is 1-0.
- How many corners are expected in Union Magdalena vs Orsomarso?
- The corner model projects 8.2 total corners. Over 8.00 corners is rated at 53% probability.
- How are these predictions calculated?
- Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.