Copa do Brasil
Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense Prediction
Kickoff (UTC):
Predicted score
1-1
Expected goals1.01 – 1.11
Avg goals2.11
Our pickAway
Vasco da Gama 31%
Draw 32%
Fluminense 36%
Markets
| Market | Line | Our pick | Probability | Fair odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | – | Away | 36% | 2.75 | 2.20 |
| Double chance | – | Draw or away | 69% | 1.45 | 1.32 |
| Goals | 2.25 | Under +6% Value | 59% | 1.70 | 1.83 |
| Both teams to score | – | No | 56% | 1.78 | 1.80 |
| Asian handicap | 0.25 | Home +6% Value | 57% | 1.77 | 1.93 |
| Corners | 9 | Under | 52% | 1.91 | 1.85 |
| Correct score | – | 1-1 | 15% | 6.75 | 6.50 |
Bookmaker odds
| Match result (1X2) | Home 3.25 · Draw 3.30 · Away 2.20 |
| Goals 2.25 | Over 1.98 · Under 1.83 |
| Asian handicap 0.25 | Home 1.93 · Away 1.88 |
| Corners 9 | Over 1.95 · Under 1.85 |
Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.
Corner forecast
4.6
Vasco da Gama
8.8
Expected corners
4.2
Fluminense
Vasco da Gama corner stats · Fluminense corner stats
Corner line 9.00
Over 48%
Under 52%
Match trends
- The corner model expects around 8.8 corners here; Vasco da Gama are forecast for 4.6.
- Vasco da Gama win 4.81 corners per game, with match totals averaging 9.20 over their last 69.
- Vasco da Gama games clear the 9.5 corner line 46% of the time.
- Across 72 recent matches, Fluminense games produced 8.82 corners on average — 4.69 taken by Fluminense themselves.
- Fluminense games clear the 9.5 corner line 40% of the time.
- Vasco da Gama matches average 2.78 goals, with both teams scoring in 54% of them.
- Games involving Fluminense produce 2.29 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 51%.
- The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals per game.
- Corners have averaged 8.7 across their last 10 direct meetings.
- The model leans Under 2.25 goals at 59% probability.
Vasco da Gama — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | H | W Independiente Medellin | 1–0 | 3–4 |
| 2026-07-26 | H | D Mirassol | 1–1 | 9–5 |
| 2026-07-23 | A | D Independiente Medellin | 2–2 | 6–3 |
| 2026-07-17 | A | L Vitoria | 0–1 | 2–3 |
| 2026-06-01 | H | L Atletico Mineiro | 0–1 | 3–4 |
| 2026-05-28 | H | W Barracas Central | 3–0 | 7–1 |
| 2026-05-25 | H | L Bragantino | 0–3 | 6–6 |
| 2026-05-21 | A | L Olimpia Asuncion | 1–3 | 3–13 |
| 2026-05-17 | A | L Internacional | 1–4 | 4–3 |
| 2026-05-14 | H | D Paysandu | 2–2 | 6–4 |
Fluminense — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | H | D Bahia | 0–0 | 8–1 |
| 2026-07-27 | A | D Gremio | 1–1 | 2–9 |
| 2026-07-18 | H | D Bragantino | 1–1 | 11–4 |
| 2026-07-13 | H | W Bahia | 2–0 | 1–2 |
| 2026-07-09 | H | W Nova Iguacu | 6–1 | 8–3 |
| 2026-06-01 | A | D Cruzeiro | 1–1 | 4–5 |
| 2026-05-28 | H | W Deportivo La Guaira | 3–1 | 2–1 |
| 2026-05-24 | A | L Mirassol | 0–1 | 5–4 |
| 2026-05-20 | H | W Bolivar | 2–1 | 5–1 |
| 2026-05-17 | H | W Sao Paulo | 2–1 | 3–5 |
Match questions
- Who is predicted to win Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense?
- Our model gives Vasco da Gama a 31% chance, the draw 32% and Fluminense 36%. The most likely score is 1-1.
- How many corners are expected in Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense?
- The corner model projects 8.8 total corners. Over 9.00 corners is rated at 48% probability.
- How are these predictions calculated?
- Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.