New Zealand Central Premier League
Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Western Suburbs Prediction
Kickoff (UTC):
Predicted score
1-1
Expected goals1.05 – 1.53
Avg goals2.58
Our pickAway
Wellington Phoenix Reserves 25%
Draw 28%
Western Suburbs 47%
Markets
| Market | Line | Our pick | Probability | Fair odds | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | – | Away | 47% | 2.13 | 1.75 |
| Double chance | – | Draw or away | 75% | 1.33 | 1.22 |
| Goals | 3.25 | Under +36% Value | 71% | 1.41 | 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | – | Yes | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Asian handicap | 0.75 | Home +7% Value | 60% | 1.67 | 1.80 |
| Corners | 11 | Over | 51% | 1.98 | 2.00 |
| Correct score | – | 1-1 +21% Value | 13% | 7.46 | 9.00 |
Bookmaker odds
| Match result (1X2) | Home 3.40 · Draw 4.00 · Away 1.75 |
| Goals 3.25 | Over 1.83 · Under 1.98 |
| Asian handicap 0.75 | Home 1.80 · Away 2.00 |
| Corners 11 | Over 2.00 · Under 1.80 |
Latest pre-match prices from the odds feed, refreshed hourly until 30 minutes before kickoff.
Corner forecast
11.1
Expected corners
Wellington Phoenix Reserves corner stats · Western Suburbs corner stats
Corner line 11.00
Over 51%
Under 49%
Match trends
- Across 27 recent matches, Wellington Phoenix Reserves games produced 11.56 corners on average — 5.37 taken by Wellington Phoenix Reserves themselves.
- Over 9.5 corners has landed in 70% of Wellington Phoenix Reserves matches.
- Western Suburbs matches average 10.74 total corners (5.56 won per game) across their last 27 with corner data.
- Over 9.5 corners has landed in 59% of Western Suburbs matches.
- Games involving Wellington Phoenix Reserves produce 2.93 goals per match on average; BTTS has hit 56%.
- Western Suburbs matches average 3.22 goals, with both teams scoring in 44% of them.
- Across their previous 10 meetings, these sides averaged 2.9 goals.
- Head-to-head, the last 10 meetings with corner data averaged 12.1 corners.
- On the goal line, our probabilities favour Under 3.25 (71%).
Wellington Phoenix Reserves — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | H | L Napier City Rovers | 1–2 | 4–8 |
| 2026-07-11 | A | L Miramar Rangers | 0–1 | 3–15 |
| 2026-07-04 | H | D FC Western | 1–1 | 8–3 |
| 2026-06-27 | A | D Petone FC | 1–1 | 5–5 |
| 2026-06-20 | H | D Waterside Karori | 0–0 | 8–0 |
| 2026-06-07 | A | L FC Western | 1–2 | 10–7 |
| 2026-06-03 | H | D Island Bay United | 2–2 | 5–2 |
| 2026-05-23 | A | L Upper Hutt City | 0–1 | 11–5 |
| 2026-05-16 | H | W Island Bay United | 3–1 | 8–2 |
| 2026-05-09 | A | L Wellington Olympic | 1–3 | 1–7 |
Western Suburbs — last 10 matches
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | A | W Upper Hutt City | 2–1 | 3–3 |
| 2026-07-11 | H | W Island Bay United | 2–0 | 8–4 |
| 2026-06-20 | A | L Wellington Olympic | 1–2 | 7–5 |
| 2026-06-13 | A | L Miramar Rangers | 0–2 | 4–11 |
| 2026-06-06 | H | D Napier City Rovers | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| 2026-05-23 | H | W Miramar Rangers | 1–0 | 5–7 |
| 2026-05-16 | A | D Waterside Karori | 2–2 | 8–1 |
| 2026-05-09 | H | W Petone FC | 1–0 | 8–3 |
| 2026-05-02 | H | W Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 1–0 | 4–5 |
| 2026-04-25 | H | W Upper Hutt City | 2–1 | 4–0 |
Match questions
- Who is predicted to win Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Western Suburbs?
- Our model gives Wellington Phoenix Reserves a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Western Suburbs 47%. The most likely score is 1-1.
- How many corners are expected in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Western Suburbs?
- The corner model projects 11.1 total corners. Over 11.00 corners is rated at 51% probability.
- How are these predictions calculated?
- Predictions come from a statistical model fitted on multi-season match results: team attack/defense ratings with time decay, blended with current market lines. No human tipsters are involved, and every published prediction is settled and counted in our public accuracy record.